Groundfish Forum 2026: Cod recovers in 2027 as pollock supply falls
The 33rd Groundfish Forum in Nice has put numbers on a shift that has been building in whitefish markets for two years. Total wild whitefish landings are forecast to rise slightly in 2027, but the two species that anchor most global trade are moving in opposite directions. Atlantic cod is set for its first increase in years. Alaska pollock is heading for another decline.
That split matters to anyone buying whitefish for processing. Pollock is the raw material behind surimi, fish sticks and portions. Cod sits at the premium end of the same shelf.
The Numbers
The forum projects global wild whitefish landings of 6.604 million tonnes in 2027, against 6.577 million tonnes in 2026. That is a gain of 27,000 tonnes, or 0.4%, according to the forecast data reported by IntraFish.
Alaska pollock, the largest wild whitefish stock by volume, is forecast at 3.70 million tonnes in 2027, down 90,000 tonnes or 2.4% year on year. Almost all of the reduction comes from Russia, where catches are expected to fall from 2.2 million tonnes to 2.1 million tonnes. US and Canadian pollock output moves the other way, edging up from 1.42 million tonnes to 1.43 million tonnes.
Atlantic cod is the standout. The 2027 forecast is 707,000 tonnes, up 53,000 tonnes or 8.1%. Norway and Russia each add roughly 20,000 tonnes. North American cod rises from 47,000 tonnes to 65,000 tonnes, while Iceland slips slightly.
The rest of the groundfish basket is mixed. Hake gains 21,000 tonnes to 967,000 tonnes. Haddock adds 8,000 tonnes to 315,000 tonnes. Hoki jumps 24% to 155,000 tonnes, driven by New Zealand and Chile. Saithe loses 13,000 tonnes to 217,000 tonnes.
The cod figure carries a longer timeline. Baird Maritime reported on 14 October that Russia's VNIRO Polar branch expects the Barents Sea cod stock and total allowable catch to begin a gradual recovery from 2027 after a decade of decline. The joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic fisheries working group advised 2027 catches of no more than 312,667 tonnes, about 10% above the 285,000-tonne quota agreed for 2026. That 2026 quota was the lowest since 1991, and spawning-stock biomass this year is the lowest since 2000. The working group attributes the proposed increase mainly to the 2021 year class entering the fishable stock.
What It Means for Buyers
The pollock number is the one to plan around. A 2.4% cut concentrated almost entirely in Russia keeps pressure on the raw-material side of surimi and block markets, and it arrives in the same period that Asian surimi demand is expanding. Buyers covering 2027 volumes in pollock-based products should plan for tighter availability rather than relief. Russian-origin and US-origin supply are also worth treating as separate risk lines rather than one pool.
Cod is a different trade. An 8.1% increase is the first real supply signal in years, and North American cod rising from 47,000 to 65,000 tonnes is meaningful for buyers who had written the species off. Even so, a 707,000-tonne global catch remains small against demand. The gap between advice and decision is also unresolved: 312,667 tonnes is the working group's recommendation, not a quota, and the final 2027 Barents Sea total allowable catch will be set by the joint Norwegian-Russian commission before the end of the year.
For buyers building whitefish programmes, the practical read is substitution. When pollock tightens, farmed whitefish such as tilapia and pangasius absorb demand and the price gap between wild and farmed formats narrows. That is a judgement rather than a forecast, but it is the pattern of the last two cycles.
What to Watch
The joint Norwegian-Russian fisheries commission's final 2027 Barents Sea cod quota, due before the end of 2026.
Whether the Russian pollock reduction is confirmed in the final 2027 Sea of Okhotsk total allowable catch.
US Bering Sea pollock catch rates: NOAA's report through 3 October showed the Community Development Quota sector at 99% of allocation, 137,788 of 139,400 units, and the AFA inshore sector at 509,567 of 602,050 units, according to Alaska News.
Whether Asian surimi demand keeps running ahead of pollock supply. That would show up first in block and surimi raw-material pricing.
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This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI and is published for general information only. It does not constitute trading, pricing, or investment advice, and readers should verify all figures against the original sources linked above before making commercial decisions. Content on this page is partly AI-generated. Easy Seafood makes no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.
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