Russia's pollock surge into China meets a smaller 2027 quota
Frozen pollock shipments from Russia to China cleared the whole of 2025's total before the end of September. Alexey Buglak, president of Russia's Pollock Catchers Association, gave that figure at the Fish for the Future forum during the China Fisheries & Seafood Expo in Qingdao on 29 October, next to a less comfortable one: Russian surimi exports are now expected to fall about 20% this year.
Record raw material flows, shrinking semifinished supply and a smaller 2027 quota make for a tighter buying season.
The Numbers
Russia shipped 535,000 tonnes of frozen pollock to China in 2025, up 11% on 2024, Buglak said. January to September 2026 has already passed that full-year figure, as Undercurrent News reported.
The product mix has moved faster than the volume. Shipments of pollock fillets, minced fish and surimi to China reached 39,000 tonnes in 2025, roughly 20 times the combined volume of the preceding four years.
Surimi is where the reversal sits. Russian output hit 89,000 tonnes in 2025, up 26% and a record, from about 7,000 tonnes in 2021. The association had expected another 20% to 25% this year and a first break above 100,000 tonnes. Buglak now forecasts exports down about 20%, with processors redirecting raw material into H&G and fillets, which he sees up 6% to 7%.
Price explains the switch. Russian H&G pollock, 25cm and up, was assessed close to USD 2,600 per tonne CFR China in week 45, up USD 85 on the week after six flat weeks. European PBO fillet blocks were quoted at USD 4,200 to 4,300 per tonne at the end of October, against USD 3,500 to 3,600 for first-grade pollock surimi. Fillets and H&G pay better per tonne of raw material.
Catch is not the constraint yet. Russia passed 2 million tonnes by 3 November and will land about 2.2 million tonnes in 2026 with quota use near 91%, Izvestia reported. But the Ministry of Agriculture's order No. 571 of 1 September set the 2027 Far East pollock TAC at 2.356 million tonnes, down 2.7%. The three main grounds, north Okhotsk, west Kamchatka and Kamchatka-Kuril, fall from about 1.01 million tonnes to 881,000 tonnes, a 13% cut. The Groundfish Forum sees 2027 global supply at 3.7 million tonnes, down 2.4%, almost all of the loss in Russia.
China's import data shows where it goes. January to September arrivals of pollock raw material reached 604,600 tonnes, up 23%, of which Russia supplied 565,800 tonnes and the United States 34,000 tonnes.
What It Means for Buyers
Two markets are separating. H&G and fillet buyers face a smaller 2027 quota and sellers that have repriced twice in a quarter. Surimi buyers face a different problem: processors are choosing to make less of it.
For anyone producing fish balls, crab sticks or other surimi-based lines, the arithmetic is uncomfortable. Russian surimi was the growth source that let Asian buyers offset flat Alaska output. A 20% export decline removes that cushion just as fillet and H&G prices pull raw material away.
The 13% cut matters more than the headline 2.7%, because those grounds feed China's processing cluster. Expect 2027 A-season offers written against a tighter near-term balance than the annual average implies.
The United States is not an obvious substitute. Bering Sea TAC was set at 1.375 million tonnes for 2026 against 1.389 million in 2025, and the Gulf of Alaska allocation fell 25% to 134,118 tonnes.
One structural change matters. Russian Fishery Company and Chinese manufacturer Anjoy Foods signed a direct supply agreement for high-grade pollock surimi on 29 October, with no intermediary in the chain. If that model spreads, less Russian surimi clears through the spot market, and availability rather than price becomes the constraint.
What to Watch
The North Pacific Fishery Management Council meeting in Anchorage, 30 November to 9 December, for the US 2027 recommendation.
Okhotsk B-season landing sizes through December; Russian sellers have reported smaller, leaner fish than in the A season.
The 19 November assessment of double-frozen PBO, which will show whether fillet prices hold at current levels.
Whether the Anjoy supply deal is followed by similar direct contracts, which would thin the spot surimi market further.
Related Products
This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI and is published for general information only. It does not constitute trading, pricing, or investment advice, and readers should verify all figures against the original sources linked above before making commercial decisions. Content on this page is partly AI-generated. Easy Seafood makes no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.
Comments