Vietnam shrimp exports reach $3.7bn as US and EU demand slips
Vietnam's shrimp exporters booked $3.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, an 11% gain year on year, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers. The headline looks solid. Open it up and the picture changes: September shipments were worth $467 million, up only 4%, and growth has slid from 14% in the first half.
Nearly all of the expansion now comes from one direction. China took close to a third of Vietnam's shrimp by value, while the two markets that traditionally set the price tone, the United States and the European Union, both went backwards.
The Numbers
Figures are from Vietnam Customs data compiled by VASEP and reported by VietnamPlus and VASEP.
Nine-month total: $3.7 billion, up 11%. September alone: $467 million, up 4%.
China: nearly $1.2 billion, up 37%, equal to 33% of total value. With Hong Kong included, $1.3 billion, up 35%.
United States: $498 million, down 15%. September shipments to the US fell 32%.
European Union: $406.4 million, down 4.9%, with September down 12.5%.
Japan: $440.9 million, up 6.4%. Australia: $211.9 million, up 18.5%. Canada: $130.5 million, up 11%.
CPTPP markets combined: above $1 billion, up 10.2%.
The product split explains where the money is moving. Whiteleg shrimp brought in $2.31 billion, up 5.9%, and black tiger $360.3 million, up 7.3%. The catch-all category of other shrimp, meaning live, fresh and frozen product outside those two lines, reached $1.08 billion, up 25.4%. That is the lobster trade into China, and it is not the frozen block and PDTO business most importers buy.
On the supply side, brackish-water shrimp output passed 1.07 million tonnes in nine months, 76.6% of the 1.4 million tonne annual target. Whiteleg accounted for 791,400 tonnes, black tiger 281,500 tonnes. Peak harvest in the Mekong Delta has already pushed farm-gate whiteleg prices lower in several provinces.
What It Means for Buyers
Two forces are pulling Vietnamese offers in opposite directions, and they will not cancel out cleanly.
The weak US and EU numbers mean Vietnamese packers have spare capacity aimed at Western spec, and they have to compete for it against Ecuador and India. Expect sellers to be flexible on whiteleg counts and processing formats through Q4, especially on large-volume container programmes. That is a buying opportunity, not a warning sign.
The China concentration cuts the other way. When a third of the export book sits in one market, a pause in Chinese purchasing does not stay in China. Product gets redirected, and prices in the next-best markets move fast. Anyone quoting Vietnamese shrimp on an open basis into January is carrying that risk.
Raw material gives modest relief in the near term. Peak harvest and softer farm-gate prices in the Delta should support packer margins and limit price hikes on new crop offers. Feed, post-larvae, power and disease costs have not gone away, and outbreaks of EHP, white spot and AHPND still dent survival rates, so the relief is likely to be seasonal rather than structural.
One more cost line to keep in view: shrimp remains the Vietnamese commodity most exposed to US tariffs, with an additional 12.5% under Section 301 on top of anti-dumping and countervailing duties applied to named exporters.
What to Watch
The final results of the 20th administrative review of US anti-dumping duties (POR20), due in November 2026. Rates reset landed cost for the whole first half of 2027.
Monthly export values. VASEP puts the number needed to close the year at $5.1 to $5.2 billion, which means $470 to $480 million a month for October through December.
Chinese import pace against actual consumption. The Global Shrimp Forum already flagged imports running ahead of domestic demand, and that gap usually closes through lower orders rather than higher eating.
Ecuadorian supply and its US access. Restored eligibility for some Ecuadorian plants widens buyer options and adds pressure on Vietnam's western-facing volumes, as VASEP noted in its September seafood review.
Related Products
This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI and is published for general information only. It does not constitute trading, pricing, or investment advice, and readers should verify all figures against the original sources linked above before making commercial decisions. Content on this page is partly AI-generated. Easy Seafood makes no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.
Comments