Vietnam's seafood growth shifts to fish and China as shrimp slips
Vietnam's October export report splits the industry down the middle. Fish and cephalopods grew at double-digit rates, whiteleg shrimp fell, and the buyers behind the growth are increasingly Asian. China and Hong Kong accounted for more than half of the increase in the first ten months of 2026.
The figures come from Vietnam Customs data compiled by the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers. They describe a year in which growth came from whitefish, lobster and cephalopods rather than the shrimp that built the industry. Hitting the USD 12 billion full-year target now needs about USD 770 million a month in November and December, below October's run rate.
The Numbers
October seafood exports reached USD 1.315 billion, up 13.5% year on year, taking the ten-month total to USD 10.46 billion, up 12.1%, according to eFeedLink.
The fish group did the heavy lifting. Other fish exports hit USD 309 million in October, up 55%, and contributed roughly 70% of the month's total increase. Pangasius reached USD 249 million, up 14.9%, with the ten-month total near USD 2 billion, up 11%. Tuna rose 13.4% and squid and octopus rose 14.8%.
Shrimp went the other way. October exports fell 4.9% to USD 474 million. Whiteleg shrimp dropped 8.3% to USD 307 million, leaving its ten-month total at USD 2.62 billion, up only 4%. The shrimp group still shows 9% growth for the year, but USD 915 million of the ten-month figure comes from spiny lobster, up 31% and worth USD 216 million of added revenue on its own.
On markets, China and Hong Kong took USD 2.62 billion over ten months, up 30.3% and about 54% of the sector's total increase. ASEAN added USD 722 million, up 22.9%. The United States fell 11.8% in October to about USD 200 million, leaving ten-month sales there at USD 1.63 billion, down 1.2%. The EU and Japan recovered in October, up 22.1% and 6.7%, but their ten-month growth is only 1.1% and 2.8%.
What It Means for Buyers
Whiteleg shrimp is a buyer's market with a duty attached. Demand is not coming to the rescue. US import volume fell 0.7% and EU volume 2.3% in the first eight months while Ecuador's exports rose 19.8%, which explains why Vietnam's whiteleg volume grew only 4% in value terms. Add the final results of the 20th US administrative review, published on 3 November, and Vietnamese product carries a known cost into 2027 that Ecuador does not. That is room to negotiate on price for first-quarter arrivals, but not a reason to run a single-origin shrimp book.
Cephalopods are the tighter leg, and the pressure is on the raw material side. Vietnam's squid and octopus exports rose 14.8% in October while the two origins that feed its processing lines came up short: Peru's jumbo flying squid quota is all but taken and Argentina's Illex season closed in the first half. Vietnam is the residual supplier for buyers who need calibrated rings, tubes and tentacles, and residual suppliers price accordingly. Contract size and shipment windows now, before the Chinese New Year build-up takes the clean grades.
China concentration is the risk to watch. More than half of this year's growth sits in one market, and the categories feeding it are whitefish and lobster, not the frozen blocks that move through Western retail. If Chinese buying slows, sellers redirect volume to the EU and ASEAN quickly, and October's 22.1% EU jump is a hint of what that looks like.
One number deserves care. The 9% headline for shrimp is carried by lobster, so read whiteleg at 4% when you set 2027 contract expectations.
What to Watch
How the 3 November anti-dumping rates pass through into first-quarter 2027 US offers.
China's monthly shrimp import volumes, which grew 25.5% in the first eight months and are now the main support under Vietnamese shrimp prices.
Raw material availability for Vietnamese squid processors from Peru and Argentina, the constraint that decides whether October's 14.8% holds.
Whether the EU's October rebound persists into November or was a single restocking month.
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This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI and is published for general information only. It does not constitute trading, pricing, or investment advice, and readers should verify all figures against the original sources linked above before making commercial decisions. Content on this page is partly AI-generated. Easy Seafood makes no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.
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