Vietnam seafood exports top $9.1bn as China-Hong Kong demand surges
Vietnam's seafood exports reached US$9.103 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11.4% year on year. The headline is strong. The detail underneath is less comfortable for anyone selling into the United States, the EU or Japan.
Growth is now concentrated in one direction. China-Hong Kong and ASEAN expanded sharply through the period. All three traditional developed markets moved backwards in September.
The Numbers
The figures come from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), reported by Vietnam Foodexpo and Seafood Media Group. September exports were US$1.135 billion, up 11.9% year on year. The nine-month total of US$9.103 billion compares with the same period in 2025.
Shrimp is still the largest single line at US$3.75 billion for the nine months, up 11%, equal to roughly 41% of total seafood export value. The warning sits in the monthly trend. September shrimp exports were US$467 million, up only 3.9%.
Pangasius ran ahead of shrimp in September. Monthly exports reached about US$214 million, up 18.6%, taking the nine-month total to US$1.74 billion, up 10.7%. Tuna added US$82 million in September, up 13.1%, for a nine-month total of US$716 million, up 3.5%.
The faster growth sits further down the list. Squid and octopus reached US$606 million for the nine months, up 15.4%. Crab, swimming crab and other crustaceans reached US$354 million, up 31.6%. Mollusks reached US$231 million, up 25.2%, although September shipments for the group fell 3.5% on the month.
On the market side, China-Hong Kong took US$2.3 billion over nine months, up 33%, and accounted for roughly one quarter of Vietnam's total seafood export value. VASEP calculates that the market generated about 62% of the year-on-year increase in export turnover. ASEAN reached US$620 million, up 21%.
The contrast with developed markets is sharp. US exports were US$1.43 billion for the nine months, up 0.9%, with September down 3.4% to US$176 million. EU exports fell 3% to US$843 million, including a 12.8% drop in September to US$93 million. Japan managed 0.8% nine-month growth to US$1.25 billion after a 13.7% September decline.
What It Means for Buyers
The concentration risk runs both ways. Vietnam's export growth now leans heavily on Chinese and ASEAN buying, and a 33% jump in a single market is not a rate that repeats indefinitely. Buyers in the US, EU and Japan hold more leverage than the headline growth figure suggests, because their orders are the part of the book that is shrinking.
Watch the shrimp line most closely. Shrimp is 41% of Vietnam's seafood export value and September's 3.9% growth sits well below the nine-month average of 11%. VASEP points to supply competition and limited absorption in major markets rather than to a broad demand recovery. Data presented at September's Global Shrimp Forum showed China's shrimp imports growing faster than consumption, EU raw shrimp imports declining, and US frozen shrimp volumes falling in August even as revenue rose on price.
The strongest read-across for processors is in the smaller species. Crab, other crustaceans, squid, octopus and mollusks all posted double-digit growth while the two flagship categories slowed. Those are the lines where incremental volume is actually moving, and where sellers are least likely to be holding firm on price.
One factor for Q4 planning: VASEP expects a slowdown, on the basis that many year-end orders were placed and delivered earlier than usual. Raw material constraints are tightening as well, and not only in shrimp. The association flags pangasius and tilapia as short of raw material alongside shrimp, while traceability and origin requirements limit volume growth for wild-caught lines.
What to Watch
October and November shrimp export values, to see whether 3.9% monthly growth is the new run rate or a one-off.
China-Hong Kong monthly volumes, given the market now carries roughly 62% of Vietnam's export growth.
US tariff costs, Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements and Certificate of Analysis rules, which VASEP names as the drags on the US line.
Whether the EU's 12.8% September decline extends through the fourth quarter, or whether it was driven by early ordering.
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This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI and is published for general information only. It does not constitute trading, pricing, or investment advice, and readers should verify all figures against the original sources linked above before making commercial decisions. Content on this page is partly AI-generated. Easy Seafood makes no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.
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