Review of Vietnam Pangasius Market in July 2026: Polarized Prices by Fish Sizes, European Demand Bolsters Medium-Sized Fish Prices

I. Core Market Shifts: Divergent Price Trends Across Sizes

Vietnam’s raw pangasius market saw a stark split in pricing after entering July. During Week 28 (July 6–12), farm-gate purchase prices displayed contrasting trends for different fish sizes:

1. Medium-sized fish (800g–1kg), the staple for European buyers, hit new highs

   This size range is the primary raw material for fillet processing targeting European markets, backed by steady purchasing demand. Its farm-gate price neared 30,000 VND per kilogram (approximately USD 1.14). Data from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) showed that prices for 700g–1kg pangasius rose by 500 VND week-on-week in early July, settling at 28,000–30,500 VND/kg—the highest price tier across all sizes currently.

Looking back at the first half of the year, prices for all pangasius sizes dipped to levels close to the same period last year between Weeks 20 and 23. Medium-sized fish rebounded first starting from Week 26, widening the price gap with larger specimens.

2. Fish over 1kg recorded mild price declines for two consecutive weeks

   Weaker demand for large-sized raw fish triggered sustained price corrections. However, industry insiders clarified that the downward adjustment does not stem from a massive supply surplus, and overall market prices remain at a high level compared with previous years for the same season.

   
   

II. Root Causes of Price Divergence: Structural Demand Differences in Overseas Markets

1. European market relies heavily on medium-sized pangasius fillets

European end consumers prefer standard fillets processed from 800g–1kg pangasius, driving consistent long-term stocking by processing factories and strongly supporting medium-sized fish prices. Large-sized pangasius has limited applicable usage scenarios, resulting in reduced purchase orders and downward price pressure.

2. China acts as a core growth driver for Vietnam’s pangasius exports

Vietnam’s pangasius export volume is highly correlated with China’s procurement cycles. Surges in Chinese import demand in January and April this year significantly boosted Vietnam’s overall seafood exports, serving as a key pillar of industry growth. Large-sized pangasius is mainly supplied to China’s catering and pre-made dish sectors; slower purchasing activity from China has simultaneously dragged down raw material prices for big fish.

III. Persistently High Industry Costs Prevent Export Price Cuts

Despite minor price drops for large-sized raw fish, export finished product quotations have stayed largely unchanged due to mounting cost burdens squeezing profit margins across the industrial chain:

1. Rigid increases in comprehensive farming costs

   Inflation, surging fuel prices, rising aquaculture expenses and higher financing costs have collectively lifted overall production costs. Previously, pangasius fry prices once exceeded 70,000 VND per kilogram, drastically cutting farmers’ profit margins.

2. Seasonal fry price drops yet persistent quality risks

   Fry prices normally fall mid-year on a seasonal basis. In 2026, fry rates declined in Weeks 17–23 and Week 28, returning to typical seasonal patterns. Nevertheless, inconsistent fry quality remains prevalent, and farmers frequently restock fish repeatedly, indirectly pushing up actual farming costs.

3. Elevated international ocean freight rates lock export prices

   Le Thi Thuy Trang, Sales Manager of Siam Canadian Group’s Vietnamese subsidiary, stated that persistently high international shipping costs have fully offset the slight cost savings from cheaper large-sized raw fish. As a result, average export quotations to Europe saw no obvious adjustments in July.

   
   

IV. Future Market Outlook

1. Sustained price gaps between sizes: Steady rigid demand from European fillet manufacturers will keep medium-sized pangasius prices well-supported. Without large-scale restocking orders from China, prices of large fish will struggle to rebound in the short run.

2. Long-term cost pressures: No signs of relief for farming, logistics and capital costs, meaning raw material prices will likely stay elevated throughout the year.

3. Fry quality may restrict production capacity in the long term: Unstable fry quality risks constraining fish harvest volumes in the second half of the year, potentially tightening raw material supply in the medium-to-long term.

   
   

Industry Summary

The Vietnam pangasius market has moved past the era of uniform price hikes or drops across all sizes, with differentiated demand from segmented overseas markets becoming the core pricing factor. For domestic traders, catering and pre-made food enterprises in China, purchasing strategies must adjust according to fish sizes to anticipate cost fluctuations: import costs for medium-sized pangasius keep climbing, while slight bargaining room exists for large-sized raw fish. Still, blanket high comprehensive costs covering farming and logistics will prevent sharp reductions in end ingredient prices. Market participants should continue tracking Chinese import orders, stocking schedules of European processing plants, and fry and aquaculture conditions in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta region.