Peru's Fisheries Enter 120‑Day State of Emergency; Risk of Squid Output Reduction in 2027 Confirmed

The Peruvian government has declared a national 120‑day state of emergency for its relevant fisheries sub‑sectors. Signed by President Keiko Sofía Fujimori Higuchi and Minister of Production Juan Carlos Requejo Alemán, Supreme Decree No. 012‑2026‑PRODUCE was issued against the backdrop of an ongoing super El Niño event. Peru ranks as the world’s top harvester of Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas), accounting for over half of global landings. Based on marine biological mechanisms, comparisons with historical data and current quota consumption rates, the total catch for 2026 is expected to remain at a high level while new supplies will tighten in the second half of the year. Substantial output reduction risks loom for 2027.

Probability of Super El Niño Exceeds 90%; Sea Surface Temperature 2℃ Above Baseline

One week ago, Peru’s National El Niño Study Commission (ENFEN) warned that the country faces a very high likelihood of a severe El Niño event in the coming months. Peru’s National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (Senamhi) assessed that the situation is unprecedented since 1950. All numerical models project further intensification of El Niño, with the probability of a super‑strength event surpassing 90%. According to ENFEN, this climatic episode will persist into 2026‑2027, ranging from strong to super‑strong intensity.

Data from the U.S. NOAA Climate Prediction Center shows that the Niño 1+2 index, which directly shapes coastal Peruvian ecosystems, has soared to +1.0℃, while the Niño 3.4 index has risen to +0.4℃. Subsurface water temperature anomalies have climbed for six consecutive months, with clear signs of deep warm water surging eastward across the Pacific. Reports from the Climate Prediction Center confirm Pacific sea temperatures are more than 2.0℃ above the baseline, marking one of the most powerful El Niño events in recent decades. Official forecasts warn of severe drought across central and southern Peru, alongside heavy rainfall in northern regions.

Weakened Upwelling Triggers Three‑Fold Biological Responses

Humboldt squid are short‑lived cephalopods (lifespan: 1‑2 years) with typical ecological opportunistic traits, and are extremely sensitive to fluctuations in water temperature, ocean currents and primary productivity. In normal years, intense upwelling driven by the Humboldt Current brings nutrient‑rich cold deep water to the surface, fuelling dense phytoplankton and mesopelagic fish populations and creating feeding grounds for Humboldt squid. Under favourable cold‑water conditions, individuals may live 1.5‑2 years and develop into large morphotypes, some reaching 1.2 metres in length and 65 kilograms in weight.

During El Niño, eastern Pacific upwelling weakens, surface water temperatures rise abnormally and nutrients become depleted. This triggers three key biological responses in Humboldt squid. First: accelerated metabolism and precocious maturation. Per the temperature‑size rule, higher water temperatures raise basal metabolic rates, causing individuals to reach sexual maturity at younger ages and smaller body sizes. Large morphotypes decline sharply and lifespans shorten to roughly one year. Second: habitat contraction and dispersed distribution. Populations descend to deeper waters or migrate toward higher latitudes, ranging north to the California coast and south to southern Chile. Fragmented distribution raises search costs for commercial fishing fleets. Third: recruitment failure. Plunging primary productivity combined with shifts in plankton community structure reduce ecosystem carrying capacity. Severe recruitment failure frequently occurs during strong El Niño events, leading to steep resource declines in the subsequent one‑to‑two‑year period.

Research published in the ICES Journal of Marine Science by the University of Oxford verified that habitat suitability for Humboldt squid drops significantly during El Niño due to weakened upwelling and nutrient‑poor warm surface waters. By contrast, La Niña brings stronger upwelling and nutrient‑rich cold waters, supporting high catch volumes. In El Niño years, spawning peaks shift from spring to October; migration routes become more southeasterly, shorter and closer to shore. Total population biomass is markedly lower under El Niño than La Niña conditions.

Historical Precedent: Catches Can Fall by 70% During El Niño

Historical fishing data quantifies these impacts. Peru’s Humboldt squid landings stood at approximately 621 000 tonnes in 2023. Affected by El Niño in 2024, landings fell to around 188 000 tonnes, representing a roughly 70% drop. Benefiting from a brief cold‑water window during the transition from La Niña to neutral conditions in 2025, output rebounded to a record range of 524 000‑697 000 tonnes. Strong El Niño does not merely trim margins for Peruvian squid fisheries; it triggers precipitous collapses.

From January to April 2026, Peru’s Ministry of Production implemented an expansive quota regime based on resource assessments by IMARPE. The artisanal fishing fleet quota was raised from 76 324 tonnes to 179 188 tonnes, and later increased further to 371 103 tonnes. On 20 May, the Ministry capped the total allowable catch for 2026 at 479 311 tonnes. By 16 July, cumulative landings hit 568 652 tonnes, fulfilling 96.51 % of the 589 230‑tonne annual quota. Starting 18 July, artisanal fleets suspended fishing as quotas neared exhaustion.

High catches in the first half of 2026 largely drew down residual biomass built up under favourable habitat conditions in 2025. Minimal quota space remains for the second half. Coupled with the established El Niño phase, signals for stock recruitment have weakened. During Week 34 (14‑20 August), the average daily per‑vessel catch on the high seas fell to only 1‑2 tonnes, down substantially from roughly 10 tonnes recorded in Week 25 in June. Lower fishing efficiency directly erodes fleet profitability.

In June, Idexcam, the foreign‑trade research institute affiliated with Lima’s Chamber of Commerce (CCL), reported persistent ocean warming off Peru, with Humboldt squid dispersing into deeper waters. Exports of squid (pota) contracted sharply year‑on‑year over the first four months of 2026. On 18‑19 August, Peru hosted the First Regional Workshop on Humboldt Squid Sustainability, drawing government officials, scientists and industry representatives from Ecuador, Chile and Peru together with FAO delegates. One core context for the conference was El Niño‑driven impacts on fisheries.

High 2026 Output, Confirmed Downside Risks for 2027

Overall assessments indicate total 2026 catches will most likely remain high. Cumulative landings of 568 652 tonnes represent 96.51 % of quota fulfilment, and annual output will not fall below 2025 levels. Nevertheless, new supply is tightening in the second half‑year: artisanal fleets halted operations on 18 July, almost no quota capacity is left, and raw‑material shortages have persisted for weeks. Operation “Humboldt Squid V” launched on 23 August. IMARPE will release its final report within 15 days upon completion of surveys; the timeline for resuming fishing activities will hinge on its findings.

Substantial risk of production cuts in 2027 is confirmed. Recruitment failures induced by El Niño manifest with a one‑to‑two‑year lag. The 70 % catch drop observed in 2024 serves as a direct reference point. The 2025 output rebound stemmed from cold‑water recovery in the post‑La‑Niña transition. If the 2026‑2027 super El Niño consolidates, stock recruitment may weaken once more in 2027 and quotas could again contract drastically. Current +1.0℃ warm anomalies in the Niño 1+2 region are already placing tangible pressure on Humboldt squid habitats.

Peru is China’s top source of imported squid. In July 2026, China imported 26 252 tonnes of squid from Peru worth USD 90.88 million, accounting for 29.9 % of total squid imports. Combined with the 120‑day state of emergency and ongoing resource surveys, future Peruvian fishing intensity, raw‑material supply and export volumes to China will be constrained jointly by climatic and policy factors. Subsequent IMARPE reports and ENFEN advisories will deliver refined stock evaluations, while the setting of 2027 fishing quotas will mark the critical benchmark for gauging the scale of any production decline.