Northeast Atlantic mackerel quota set at 352,938 tonnes for 2027
The Northeast Atlantic mackerel quota for 2027 is finally settled, and the headline number is being read the wrong way across the trade press. Coastal states agreed 352,938 tonnes in London on 22 October, in line with scientific advice and roughly 54,000 tonnes above the previous year's quota. What that comparison hides is the tonnage actually caught this year.
The Numbers
The coastal states — Norway, the EU, the Faroe Islands, Greenland, Iceland and the UK — met from 20 to 22 October and adopted the ICES figure of 352,938 tonnes for 2027, according to The Grocer and The Fishing Daily. The advice itself is a 102% increase on the 2026 advice of 174,357 tonnes, which is where the doubling headlines come from.
The real baseline is the catch. Iceland's Marine and Freshwater Research Institute puts total 2026 mackerel removals at just over 398,000 tonnes, about 128% above the 174,357 tonne advice, because coastal states failed to agree shares and fishing ran well past the recommended ceiling. Set against that, the agreed 2027 limit is a reduction of roughly 45,000 tonnes, not an expansion. ICES expects the 2026 spawning stock at 3.2 million tonnes, only marginally above the biological limit reference point.
The same package covers two other pelagic stocks. Norwegian spring-spawning herring was set at 588,004 tonnes, up 10% on the previous advice, and blue whiting at 1,064,191 tonnes, up 25%.
Two structural issues are unresolved. Quota shares between the coastal states still have to be negotiated, with talks expected in early December, and Russia did not take part after unilaterally raising its mackerel quota to 67,548 tonnes earlier this year. Norway's Institute of Marine Research also flags a 33% probability that the stock drops below the limit reference point in 2028 even if the 2027 advice is followed exactly.
What It Means for Buyers
Read the 352,938 tonne figure as a ceiling below current supply, not above it. If 2027 landings actually respect the limit, the volume of Northeast Atlantic mackerel entering trade falls by roughly 11% against 2026. Buyers who pencilled in cheaper mackerel on the back of the +102% headlines will be working from the wrong number.
The December share negotiation is the swing factor. If it fails again, 2027 looks like 2026: quota agreed, shares unresolved, catch overshooting the limit. If it succeeds, allocation becomes enforceable and the effective supply cut lands harder on buyers without long-term contracts.
For buyers whose programmes are not tied to the Atlantic fishery, this is where substitution starts to price. Indian mackerel and North Pacific mackerel compete for the same retail and foodservice slots in Asian and Middle Eastern markets, and a genuine 11% cut in Atlantic supply tends to tighten those alternatives within a quarter. Buyers running mixed-origin programmes have room to shift weight; buyers locked to one origin do not. That is a judgement about relative pricing pressure, not a recommendation on any single origin.
What to Watch
The December coastal state talks on quota shares, and the NEAFC meeting in November on mackerel in international waters.
Monthly Norwegian and Faroese mackerel export volumes through the first quarter, the first hard check on whether the limit is being respected.
Whether ICES reopens the 2027 assessment if recruitment estimates move, since the spawning stock sits just above the reference point.
Retail sourcing policies in the EU and UK, where several chains have already suspended Northeast Atlantic mackerel over stock concerns.
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This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI and is published for general information only. It does not constitute trading, pricing, or investment advice, and readers should verify all figures against the original sources linked above before making commercial decisions. Content on this page is partly AI-generated. Easy Seafood makes no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.
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