Ecuador's blackouts push shrimp harvests toward larger sizes
Ecuador's power cuts have moved from a processing problem to a harvesting one. Cold stores cannot make enough ice, so trucks leave for the ponds without it, and shrimp that would normally be pulled at 30-40 count stay in the water and keep growing. Exporters working the China Fisheries and Seafood Expo in Qingdao in late October said they were steering buyers toward 20-30 count, because that is the size the ponds are now delivering.
The rationing behind it escalated through the autumn. Ecuador's National Chamber of Aquaculture (CNA) tracked restrictions climbing from 24 to 48 and then 72 hours a week in the weeks before AquaExpo 2026 in Guayaquil, and medium-voltage industrial users were disconnected for close to a week from 14 October before supply returned on the morning of 21 October, as Aquafeed reported. Domestic reporting ahead of the weekend pointed to further industrial rationing in early November.
The Numbers
Ecuador exported 1.10 million tonnes of shrimp in January to August 2026, up 19.8 percent year on year, worth USD 6.561 billion, up 18 percent, according to Central Bank of Ecuador data. China accounted for USD 2.612 billion of that, up 16 percent, and remains the largest single destination.
Prices have not followed the volume. Week 43 export quotations for head-on shell-on (HOSO) product fell USD 0.10 per kilogram week on week across all sizes, with 30/40 averaging USD 3.20 per kilogram, and some sizes quoted below previous historic lows. A salt-frozen 30-40 offer quoted at the Qingdao show was USD 4.35 per kilogram in 1.65 kilogram packs, which is a different product form and not comparable to HOSO.
The cost of the energy problem is not small. CNA put losses during the 2024 drought-driven crisis at up to USD 5 million a day for the sector. Pumps and aerators cannot be switched off, and feed mills and processing plants need continuous supply to restart, which is why medium-voltage users take the hardest hit.
What It Means for Buyers
The near-term risk in Ecuadorian shrimp is size availability, not price level. Quotes are low because Chinese buying has been cautious and because shrimp are standing in ponds longer than planned. But the same constraint that makes them stand, the lack of ice, is what will decide quality on the lots that do ship.
For a buyer filling fixed-weight retail packs, 30-40 and 40-50 are the counts to worry about. Those are the sizes being stretched out of the water. Breaded and PDTO lines have more room to move between counts than a retail HOSO pack does, so processors can absorb the shift more easily than importers selling by count on the label.
Three things are worth writing into contracts rather than assuming. First, specify glaze percentage and core temperature at loading, since product held longer in the pond and iced later carries more drip and more variance. Second, agree a count tolerance rather than a single count, because the fallback sizes exist and the exact ones do not. Third, treat the current low quotes as a window that closes if rationing extends into December, when the sector is also building stock for the Lunar New Year pull.
This is a judgement, not a forecast: cheap shrimp with a supply chain under power stress is a combination that historically resolves upward faster than buyers expect.
What to Watch
Whether industrial rationing goes beyond the early November window. Each additional week pushes more biomass into larger counts and delays harvest.
The interconnection line to Peru, scheduled to enter service in November, which would let Ecuador import power during the dry season for the first time.
El Niño rainfall. Ecuador's risk management secretariat reported 1,086 weather events across 24 provinces and 11 deaths as of 3 November, with the country still under a red alert. Rain disrupts harvest windows as effectively as a blackout.
Chinese purchase pace into the New Year, which decides whether current quotes hold or soften further.
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This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI and is published for general information only. It does not constitute trading, pricing, or investment advice, and readers should verify all figures against the original sources linked above before making commercial decisions. Content on this page is partly AI-generated. Easy Seafood makes no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.
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