US pollock fillet output falls 24% as surimi supply tightens for 2027
US Alaska pollock production is running well behind last year, and the shortfall has landed almost entirely on the two formats that feed further processing: pin-bone-out fillets and surimi. That is a raw material problem for anyone buying crab stick, fish ball or coated portions, not just for traders quoting A-season fillets.
The Numbers
NOAA Fisheries production data to 10 October, reported by Undercurrent News, shows the year-on-year damage across the product mix:
Pin-bone-out fillets at 95,737 tonnes, down 24% and the lowest since 2022
Total output excluding fishmeal at 359,266 tonnes, down 16.1%
Surimi at 135,922 tonnes, down 22.3%
Boned fillets at 1,084 tonnes, down 27.2%
Deep-skinned fillets down 5.5%, the most resilient fillet line
Gulf of Alaska headed and gutted at 27,664 tonnes, up 11.7% and the only format growing
The Genuine Alaska Pollock Producers association puts the arithmetic plainly. Year to date, PBO output is 30,244 tonnes behind the 2025 pace. Matching last year's full-year total would require another 34,205 tonnes between mid-October and the end of December. A full-year figure below 100,000 tonnes is now the base case.
Quota settings explain part of it. The 2026 Bering Sea total allowable catch was set at 1.375 million tonnes, slightly under the 1.389 million tonnes of 2025, while the Gulf of Alaska allocation was cut 25% to 134,118 tonnes. The rest comes from slower fishing, lower yields and a catch carrying a high proportion of small fish.
Forecasts already circulating for 2027 point to a global catch near 3.8 million tonnes, roughly 90,000 tonnes lower again, with Russia taking a 100,000 tonne cut to 2.1 million tonnes while the US and Canada gain 10,000 tonnes to 1.43 million tonnes.
What It Means for Buyers
Start with surimi, because that is where a 22.3% drop in output becomes a finished-goods problem. Crab stick and fish ball lines are priced off surimi, and surimi is the thinnest part of this year's pollock complex. Japanese kamaboko buyers have been settling 2026 B-season contracts 25% to 35% above the A season, with A-grade material clearing JPY700 per kilo for the first time, according to trade reports from that market. A buyer whose crab stick quotation is still anchored to Q2 raw material costs is working from a stale number.
Fillet formats split in opposite directions. Deep-skinned fillets gave up only 5.5%, while boned fillets lost more than a quarter. If your specification allows deep-skinned product, the substitution is available at a much better position than PBO. If it does not, PBO is where the scarcity is concentrated.
The 2027 pricing question is already being answered. Some US suppliers have indicated they will not roll this season's shortfall forward, which pushes replenishment volume onto 2027 A-season prices running up to USD 500 a tonne above the October monthly assessment ceiling. Waiting for a better entry has an obvious cost when the shortfall is a production number rather than a sentiment.
One caution on inventory. Pollock is not the only whitefish under pressure, and buyers who switched to alternatives in the second half of 2026 will not all switch back when pollock volumes recover. That cuts both ways for 2027 pricing, but it does not help anyone who is short coverage for the first quarter.
What to Watch
Final B-season landings through December, which decide whether the 100,000 tonne floor holds.
2027 A-season price postings from US producers and how quickly they are tested by buyers.
The North Pacific Fishery Management Council's Bering Sea TAC decision for 2027 in December.
Japanese surimi contract settlements for the 2027 A season, the clearest read on finished crab stick costs.
Related Products
This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI and is published for general information only. It does not constitute trading, pricing, or investment advice, and readers should verify all figures against the original sources linked above before making commercial decisions. Content on this page is partly AI-generated. Easy Seafood makes no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.
Comments