Norway mackerel exports drop 67% as 2026 quota runs dry
Norway shipped 17,286 tonnes of mackerel in September, 67% less than the same month last year, for NOK 925 million, a 59% drop in revenue. Higher prices covered part of the lost tonnage and no more. The Norwegian Seafood Council's export figures, released earlier this month, confirm what buyers have been feeling since the season opened: this is not a short dip in landings, it is a quota that has almost run out.
At the start of October, roughly a quarter of the Norwegian fleet's 2026 mackerel quota was still unfished. The season started later than last year and the total allowance is the smallest in modern times, which means the usual autumn flush of new-season offers never arrived.
The Numbers
Data from the Norwegian Seafood Council's September export report, measured against September 2025:
Mackerel exports: 17,286 tonnes for NOK 925 million, a drop of 67% in volume and 59% in value, or NOK 1.3 billion less revenue.
Third-quarter mackerel: 29,200 tonnes for NOK 1.5 billion, down 59% in volume and 49% in value.
Japan, the largest destination, took 6,521 tonnes, 45% less than a year earlier, at an average price of close to NOK 52 per kilogram.
Implied average across all mackerel exports: about NOK 53.5 per kilogram, from NOK 925 million over 17,286 tonnes.
Herring, by contrast, is ahead of 2025 for the year: 167,231 tonnes and NOK 3.26 billion so far, up 22% in volume and 17% in value, even after a September decline of 43% in volume.
The price line is the important one. Volume collapsed by two thirds while the average price only rose enough to soften the damage, because Japan bought less rather than paying up without limit. Jan Eirik Johnsen, the council's envoy to Japan, put it plainly: low volumes, record prices and a weak yen are pressing on the local value chain, with some segments able to absorb the cost and others having withdrawn.
ICES has published its quota advice for 2027 and the council says the new advice has eased concerns in the trade. That is a signal for next season, not this one. Whatever is left of the 2026 quota is all the raw material reaching processors before the new year.
What It Means for Buyers
Treat the current price level as the floor rather than a spike. With so little quota left in the water and the fleet well through its allocation, remaining fish will clear at flat or firmer prices. Anyone waiting for a Q4 correction on 400 to 600 gram whole frozen Atlantic mackerel is waiting for supply that does not exist.
For buyers in Asia, that changes the shape of the sourcing conversation. Japan has already responded by cutting volume rather than chasing price, and the processing channels that normally move Norwegian mackerel through Vietnam and China into Japanese retail have thinned in step. Fewer intermediaries competing for the same tonnage is not the same as easier buying.
Substitution is where the practical room sits. Pacific mackerel, Indian mackerel and scad carry different fat levels and price points and cannot simply replace Atlantic mackerel in pickling and canning lines. For secondary processing and retail packs the price gap is now wide enough to justify a specification review, especially where the end product makes no Atlantic origin claim. Buyers running both origins should model 2027 assuming Atlantic stays expensive, and price Pacific and Indian coverage as a hedge rather than a downgrade.
Note that values are reported in kroner, which has been stronger this year, so dollar price gains are smaller than the NOK figures suggest. The volume loss is currency-neutral.
What to Watch
Final landings against the 2026 quota. If the residual quarter clears quickly, the last offers of the season will be thin and early.
The size of the 2027 quota set at the coastal states consultation, following the ICES advice for a higher allowance.
Whether Japan returns to normal buying volumes in Q1 2027, or holds back a second season in a row.
The yen. A stronger yen would restore margin for Japanese importers faster than any price concession from Norway.
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This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI and is published for general information only. It does not constitute trading, pricing, or investment advice, and readers should verify all figures against the original sources linked above before making commercial decisions. Content on this page is partly AI-generated. Easy Seafood makes no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.
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