Russia Cuts 2027 Pollock Quota; Export Pressure Intensifies, Reshaping Global Seafood Supply

According to the Groundfish Forum forecast, the global total pollock output for 2027 is expected to reach 3.7 million tonnes, a year-on-year drop of 90,000 tonnes or 2.4%. Almost all of this reduction will come from Russia, whose pollock catch is projected to fall from 2.2 million tonnes to 2.1 million tonnes. Production in the US and Canada will rise slightly, while output from Japan, South Korea and other countries remains largely stable.

Russia has officially set its 2027 Far East pollock total allowable catch (TAC) at 2.3546 million tonnes, down 66,200 tonnes or 2.7% compared with 2026. Quota allocation varies sharply across regions. Traditional export-focused fishing grounds face steep cuts: quotas in the Sea of Okhotsk, Bering Sea and other core export zones have dropped notably. The combined quota for three subareas including the northern Sea of Okhotsk fell by 13%, while the western Bering Sea quota decreased by 8%. In contrast, regions such as East Sakhalin and the Northern Kuril Islands received higher quotas. Catches from these newly-allocated areas will be prioritized for Russia’s domestic market, squeezing export supplies. The industry estimates that the actual export reduction will exceed the overall quota decline.

In 2026, smaller fish sizes have led to lower processing yields for Russian pollock. From January to September, domestic surimi production dropped 20% year-on-year, though production of H&G raw materials and PBO fillets grew. Companies forecast full-year 2026 PBO fillet output at 100,000 tonnes, of which over half (55,000 tonnes) will serve domestic consumption, leaving only 45,000 tonnes for export.

On fleet development, surging shipbuilding costs have prompted Russian Fishery Company (RFC) to cut its new vessel construction plan from 11 to 9 ships. Total investment remains unchanged, focusing on fleet modernization and high-value products to meet rising domestic demand. Many of Russia’s new factory trawlers have not yet obtained EU access numbers. The firm is actively negotiating for EU market access and clarifies that delayed vessel approval is separate from EU seafood sanctions, hoping for further dialogue with the European Commission. Under the plan, RFC will operate 9 vessels by 2028 and hold around 500,000 tonnes of pollock quota.

Pollock Market Shifts: Russia’s Quota Cut and Export Contraction – What Are the Ripple Effects?

Pollock is one of the world’s most important demersal commercial fish. Its fillets and surimi are widely used in catering and ready-to-cook food, representing a huge segment of global seafood trade. With the release of 2027 fishing quotas, Russia’s adjustment is sending critical signals across the entire pollock trade.

Global pollock output will dip to 3.7 million tonnes in 2027, with nearly all the loss originating in Russia. Russia’s Far East pollock TAC is down 2.7%, but we should not interpret export market changes solely based on this 2.7% figure.

This quota reduction is not uniform. The Sea of Okhotsk and western Bering Sea, historically major export bases, face sharp cuts. Meanwhile, East Sakhalin and the Northern Kuril Islands get higher quotas. The key point: catches from these expanded-quota areas will feed Russia’s domestic market instead of overseas buyers. The result? Total quota falls modestly, but exportable raw supplies will shrink far more significantly.

The industry has already faced real challenges in 2026: smaller pollock sizes drag down processing yields. Russian surimi production has fallen 20% this year. Although raw fillet output has increased, more than half of the produced PBO fillets stay in Russia, with less than half available for export. Russia’s domestic pollock processing sector keeps expanding, and local consumption is absorbing more catches. Reduced export supply will become a long-term trend.

While exportable supplies tighten, market access barriers remain. Many new Russian factory trawlers are still waiting for EU access numbers. RFC is pushing for negotiations with EU authorities to reopen market channels. Higher shipbuilding costs forced the firm to scale back new vessel orders, yet it continues fleet upgrading, focusing on high-value seafood products for domestic demand.

Key Market Takeaways

1. Differentiated supply, not total shortage: Slightly higher output from the US and Canada can partially offset Russia’s cut. However, as Russia is the core pollock supplier, tightening export supply may put upward pressure on global pollock fillet and surimi prices. Better-sized fish from the Northern Kuril Islands may bring limited supplementary supply for European fillet markets, which cannot fully offset losses from key producing regions.

2. Domestic demand first, weaker export role: Russia is transforming from a pure raw material exporter into a country developing local deep processing. More catches will serve its home market. Overseas buyers need to adapt to the changing supply structure.

3. Geopolitics and trade barriers keep disrupting trade: Pending EU vessel approvals remain an issue. Even if fisheries matters are distinguished from sanctions, they hinder Russian seafood access to European markets.

For Chinese seafood traders, prepared food and catering enterprises, supply chain risks for pollock raw materials require advance assessment. Diversifying sourcing will become increasingly important. We will continue tracking the actual 2027 fishing performance and international price quotes to observe the real impact brought by this quota adjustment.

Disclaimer: This article is for industry information only and does not constitute commercial investment advice.