Russia Cuts 2027 Alaska Pollock Quotas; Export Pressures May Tighten Global Supply
Alaska pollock is one of the world’s most economically important marine fish species, widely processed into surimi, frozen fillets and other products with large trade volumes. According to forecasts released at the 2026 Groundfish Forum, global Alaska pollock output is expected to fall to 3.7 million tonnes in 2027, a year‑on‑year drop of 90,000 tonnes or 2.4%. Nearly all of this production decline will come from Russia, which may create supply contraction pressures in international trade.
Global Landscape: Russia Output Down, Modest Gains in the US and Canada
Data shows Russia’s Alaska pollock catch is projected to decline from 2.2 million tonnes to 2.1 million tonnes. Output in the United States and Canada will edge up from 1.42 million tonnes to 1.43 million tonnes. Catches by Japan, South Korea and other nations will stay largely flat at 170,000 tonnes, insufficient to fill the supply gap left by Russia.
Russian authorities have formally approved the total Far East Alaska pollock harvest quota for 2027 at 2.3546 million tonnes, down 66,200 tonnes or 2.7% from the 2026 quota of 2.4208 million tonnes.
Quota adjustments show clear structural divergence:
Sharp cuts in key export zones: The Sea of Okhotsk and Bering Sea are Russia’s core production areas for Alaska pollock exports. Combined quotas for the Northern Okhotsk Sea, Western Kamchatka and Kamchatka‑Kuril Islands have fallen 13%, or 131,200 tonnes, to 881,000 tonnes. The West Bering Sea quota drops from 627,000 tonnes to 579,200 tonnes, an 8% reduction.
Higher quotas in some nearshore domestic regions: The East Sakhalin quota rises 30% to 213,500 tonnes, while the North Kuril Islands quota increases 15% to 169,700 tonnes. Notably, most catches from these expanded quota areas will feed domestic Russian processing and consumption rather than overseas markets, directly widening the export shortfall.
Saveliy Karpukhin, Chairman of Russian Fishery Company (RFC), stated plainly: “For international trade, the supply reduction will definitely be larger. Russia’s domestic Alaska pollock processing sector keeps expanding. Catches from new quota allocations will serve the home market first, and export shares will shrink further.”
2026 Industry Situation: Smaller Fish Sizes and Shifting Product Mix
The industry is also grappling with smaller raw fish sizes and lower processing yields in 2026, a challenge affecting both Russian and US Alaska pollock sectors. The North Kuril Islands are an exception: with an extra 22,600 tonnes of quota and better fish sizes, this incremental volume is expected to boost fillet exports to Europe.
Russia’s Alaska pollock processing output saw marked divergence from January to September 2026:
Surimi production fell 20% year‑on‑year to just 54,332 tonnes;
Headed and gutted (H&G) raw output rose 8% to 589,966 tonnes;
PBO fillet production climbed 10% to 83,000 tonnes.
Industry estimates put full‑year 2026 PBO fillet output at roughly 100,000 tonnes. Of this, 55,000 tonnes will go to domestic consumption and only 45,000 tonnes for export, with limited volumes sold outside Europe. The trend of domestic consumption crowding out exports is already evident.
Two Industry Headaches: Vessel Construction and EU Market Access
Russia’s Alaska pollock sector continues building and retrofitting factory trawlers, yet many newly built vessels have failed to receive EU access numbers. Coupled with rising shipbuilding costs, RFC has trimmed its newbuild programme from 11 vessels to nine.
“This is not an overall investment cut; it is dynamic balancing based on quotas, markets and fleet capacity,” Karpukhin explained. The company remains focused on fleet modernisation and high‑value product manufacturing, while supporting domestic consumption growth and preserving partnerships with long‑term overseas buyers. Under its plan, RFC will operate nine vessels by 2028 holding approximately 500,000 tonnes of Alaska pollock catch quotas.
The firm is actively negotiating for EU market access and hopes relevant matters will be submitted to the European Commission for review. Russia also emphasises that the suspension of approval for new fishing vessels is separate from EU seafood sanctions and should not be conflated.
Summary
For the 2027 Alaska pollock market, while the overall quota is only slightly lowered, the actual contraction of export supply will far exceed the headline quota reduction. New production gains in Russia are absorbed by domestic processors, and quotas in traditional export waters are falling. The global market for Alaska pollock fillets and surimi will likely face tighter supplies with upward price pressure. Downstream importers should prepare supply chain contingency plans in advance.
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