First zero catch in 25 years! Sardine seine fishing season off eastern Hokkaido wraps up
On October 31, 2026, the seine fishing season for Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) off eastern Hokkaido came to an end. Not a single ton of sardines was landed throughout the season, marking the first zero catch in 25 years since 2001. Japan’s specialized fisheries publication Minato Shimbun reported the findings citing data from the Hokkaido Seine Fishery Association.
The season opened on June 16. Multiple fleets subsequently scouted repeatedly for targetable sardine schools in Pacific waters east of Hokkaido but failed to locate aggregations large enough to support fishing operations. Landings consisted mostly of small quantities of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus). The zero-catch outcome stands in stark contrast: between 2019 and 2024, the eastern Hokkaido seine fishery recorded landings exceeding 200,000 tonnes for six consecutive years, over 60% of which were unloaded at Kushiro Port. Kushiro ranked first nationwide among Japanese ports for sardine landings in both 2023 and 2024.
Statistics from Kushiro Municipal Government document this precipitous collapse. In the first nine months of 2025, 82,347 tonnes of sardines were landed at Kushiro Port; the corresponding figure for the same period in 2026 was zero. The vanishing catch rippled through ports, logistics chains, cold storage and freezing facilities, ultimately hitting fishmeal and fish oil processors that rely on sardines as feedstock. Their products supply the livestock and aquafeed sectors. Local Hokkaido media had already reported fishmeal plant shutdowns in August due to raw material shortages, and the official close of the fishing season amplified uncertainty over feedstock supply and capacity utilization.
This anomalous catch situation is corroborated by independent scientific surveys. On October 27, the Kushiro Fisheries Research Institute of the Hokkaido Research Organization released results from a midwater trawl survey carried out at seven stations in offshore waters east of Hokkaido between October 15 and 21. No sardine specimens were collected. A total of 4,154 Japanese anchovies were sampled, accounting for roughly 99% of pelagic fish specimens. The survey also observed that the influence of Oyashio-associated cold water masses was stronger than in the previous year.
Broader stock assessments indicate an overall decline in the Pacific sardine population. An assessment released on October 27 by the Fisheries Research and Education Agency (FRA) of Japan showed that Pacific sardine biomass fell from more than 5 million tonnes in 2022 to 1.694 million tonnes in 2025. Spawning stock biomass stood at approximately 1.035 million tonnes, falling below the management threshold of 1.432 million tonnes. The agency also noted that recruitment has weakened since 2023, with an especially sharp drop in the 2026 spawning index.
Accordingly, Japan’s Fisheries Agency proposed a total allowable catch (TAC) of 162,000 tonnes for Pacific sardine in the 2027 management year, a cut of roughly 75% from the 661,000 tonnes set for 2026. Around 40% of this allocation, or 64,800 tonnes, is to be reserved initially and released in phases subject to fishing performance. Trends diverge among sardine stocks: the concurrent TAC proposal for the Tsushima Warm Current stock stands at 527,000 tonnes, far higher than that for the Pacific stock. It should be noted that the 162,000-tonne figure is a regulatory proposal pending official notice rather than an actual catch volume, and its geographic and biological boundaries do not fully align with the local Hokkaido fishery.
Scientific consensus remains absent on whether the disappearance of sardines east of Hokkaido stems from localized oceanographic conditions such as the Oyashio cold water mass, or broader stock decline across the Pacific population. Nevertheless, the zero catch following six bumper seasons, paired with the steep TAC reduction, sends a clear signal to Japan’s small pelagic fish industrial chain: this key resource is returning to a cycle of extreme supply uncertainty.
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