Chilean Salmon Supply Tightens | Rare Phenomenon: Frozen Salmon Prices Surpass Fresh Chilled Salmon

The global salmon market is undergoing major changes in 2026–2027. Output from Chile, the core producing region, is declining. Coupled with disease outbreaks, red tides and rising feed costs, a rare market trend has emerged: frozen salmon is priced higher than fresh chilled salmon in China and Russia. Aquatic traders and importers need to reassess their purchasing and quotation strategies.

Shrinking Chilean Supply Restrained by Multiple Factors

At the Conxemar International Seafood Exhibition in Spain, multiple Chilean salmon suppliers revealed that Chile’s total salmon supply is expected to drop by 2–3% in 2026. Output remained stable in the first half of the year, while supply has weakened markedly since the second half.

Three major factors are squeezing supply:

• Rising disease risks in aquaculture: Infectious Salmon Anaemia (ISA) has been detected at some farms, and sea lice infestations have worsened, threatening fish survival rates.

• Disruptions from red tides: Red tides in certain farming waters have forced producers to harvest market-sized fish ahead of schedule, disrupting regular farming cycles. While early warning systems can prevent mass fish deaths, they create uncertainty in processing and logistics.

• Sharply higher feed costs: Driven by anchovy fishing regulations in Peru, fishmeal and fish oil prices have climbed. Salmon feed costs have risen roughly 20% year-on-year. Industry warnings show feed costs can reach up to USD 4.7 per kg. Even with higher finished fish prices, farms still face the risk of losses.

Industry insiders forecast the tight supply situation will last at least through Q4 2026 and into early 2027. Any new red tide outbreaks will further amplify uncertainty across processing and logistics.

Abnormal Market Trend: Frozen Salmon > Fresh Chilled Salmon

Frozen salmon faced weak demand and high inventories in the first half of the year. As inventories were gradually depleted, demand for frozen salmon picked up rapidly from mid-August, with prices rising faster than fresh chilled salmon and breaking conventional market rules.

Reference FOB market prices:

• Frozen HOG (Head On Gutted) whole fish: over USD 8.0/kg on average

• Fresh chilled salmon FOB price: around USD 7.0/kg over the same period

• China market: whole frozen salmon at approx. USD 8.40/kg, frozen fillets at approx. USD 12.40/kg

Under normal trading logic, fresh chilled salmon carries higher circulation costs and should command a higher price than frozen salmon. This price inversion is an unusual signal pointing to tight spot availability.

External Factor: Alaska Wild Salmon Output Down; Norway Key to Easing Pressure

Another negative supply-side news comes from Alaska: 2026 wild salmon harvest is only 60–70% of the projected volume. As the largest consumer market for Chilean salmon, the US is seeing greater import demand due to shortfalls in its local wild catch.

Current reference prices: Pink salmon ~USD 8.0/kg, Sockeye salmon USD 16–17/kg, King salmon up to USD 20/kg.

Market analysis says future salmon price relief hinges on production releases from Norway. Canada has largely pulled out of the US market due to seasonal cycles. Ample, competitively-priced supply from Norway could ease global upward price pressure; otherwise, high prices will persist.

Practical Takeaways for Foreign Trade Teams (For Aquatic Industry Practitioners)

1. Offer quotations with shorter validity periods, and proactively inform customers of tight global supply and volatile market risks.

2. When Chilean supplies are constrained, recommend Norwegian salmon as a viable alternative to buyers.

3. Keep track of updates on red tides, fishmeal prices and disease status in major producing areas to forecast market moves and avoid large fixed-position purchases.

4. Update old perceptions — do not assume fresh chilled salmon is always more expensive than frozen salmon; check spot market conditions separately for both categories.