US-Russia Pollock Fillet Price Standoff: A "Hot and Cold" Game Reshaping Global Supply Chains
- Easy Seafood
- Jan 19
- 3 min read
As of mid-January 2026, the global pollock fillet market is witnessing an intense price tug-of-war. While US single-frozen (PBO) fillet prices continue to climb, Russian suppliers are holding firm on their high quotes, repeatedly thwarting European buyers' attempts to negotiate lower prices. This "hot and cold" dynamic, driven by supply constraints, sanctions, and tariffs, is profoundly reshaping the landscape of global seafood trade.
š Market Snapshot: Widening Price Divergence
The pollock fillet market is currently characterized by significant regional divergence. For new orders in European and North American markets, the transaction price for US single-frozen (PBO) pollock fillets has reached the upper limit of the January assessment range, or even higher. In contrast, Russian suppliers are taking a firm stance, generally demanding prices approximately $100 per ton higher than the European cold storage price assessment (excluding tariffs), with some contracts already concluded at the upper end of this range.
š Driving Factors: Market Logic Under Multiple Pressures
The market divergence is underpinned by a complex interplay of supply, policy, and trade flows.
United States: Tight Supply Pushing Prices Higher
The US Pollock A season officially commenced on January 20th. Due to a significant reduction in the total allowable catch (TAC) for the previous B season, overall supply remains tight. This supply constraint is the primary driver behind the sustained upward pressure on US PBO fillet prices.
Russia: Sanctions & Tariffs Shape Strategy
Russian suppliers are navigating a complex environment. The EU's 13.7% tariff on Russian seafood and the UK's 35% tariff have significantly increased the landed cost of Russian pollock in these key markets. To maintain profitability, Russian exporters are compelled to quote higher FOB (Free On Board) prices, leading to the current standoff with European buyers seeking lower prices.
Europe: The Squeezed Middleman
Caught in the middle, European buyers are actively seeking to source pollock from the US West Coast as an alternative to Russian supplies. However, with US prices also on the rise, their room for negotiation is limited. Their target of purchasing at prices 350ā400 per ton below the current market rate has been largely rejected by suppliers.
š Global Trade Flow Reshuffle
This price dynamic is triggering a significant shift in global trade patterns. The high tariffs are making Russian pollock less competitive in Europe, potentially diverting more Russian supply to markets like China. Concurrently, European processors may increasingly rely on US-origin raw materials, further tightening the US market and supporting prices.
The situation presents a classic case of how geopolitical factors (sanctions, tariffs) can disrupt traditional supply chains and create new market equilibriums, with cost implications felt throughout the value chain, from fishermen to end consumers.
š” Key Takeaways for Business Stakeholders
For Buyers (Importers/Processors): Diversify sourcing strategies. Consider locking in contracts with US suppliers early in the season, but be prepared for premium pricing. Explore alternative whitefish species if cost pressures become unsustainable.
For Sellers (Exporters): Russian suppliers must carefully calculate cost-plus pricing models that account for tariffs. US suppliers are in a favorable position but should be mindful of demand elasticity at higher price points.
Market Outlook: Price volatility is likely to persist in the short to medium term. The resolution of the A season catch in the US and any potential shifts in trade policy will be critical watchpoints for Q1 2026.
The pollock market is a bellwether for global seafood trade dynamics. The current US-Russia price standoff underscores the increasing influence of non-market factors on commodity flows and pricing.
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