The Saury's Resurgence: Navigating Ocean Currents and Market Tides

After a 13-year hiatus, Japan's saury production has surged by a staggering 67%, reclaiming its position as the world's top producer. This appears to be a victory for the fishing industry, but the reality is a complex narrative woven from ocean currents, quotas, and market forces. Beneath the celebration of a bountiful harvest, the alarm for resource sustainability has not been silenced.

The year 2025 witnessed a powerful comeback for Japan's saury fishery. According to data released by the National Saury Stick-Held Dip Net Fishery Cooperative (Zen-sanma) on January 6th, Japan's total saury production for the year reached 64,700 tons, a dramatic 67% year-on-year increase. This marks not only the third consecutive year of growth but also, after 13 years, Japan has surpassed mainland China and Taiwan to reclaim the crown as the largest saury fishing nation in the North Pacific Ocean. This is more than just a numerical leap; it resembles a drama directed jointly by nature and regulation.

The "Timing" and "Geography" Behind the Bounty

This bountiful harvest does not stem from a fundamental recovery of saury resources. A researcher from the Japan Fisheries Information Service Center (JAFIC) pointed out that from mid-August 2025, the main saury fishing grounds shifted significantly westward, moving from the previous area around 165°E to the 155°-160°E range. This change brought the fish schools unprecedentedly close to Japan's own coastline.

Simultaneously, the marine environment provided an "assist." The weakening of the "Kuroshio Large Meander" phenomenon, which ended in spring, reduced the influence of the warm current, while the Oyashio cold water system strengthened again. Together, these forces effectively "pushed" the saury schools toward Japan's coastal waters. This seems more like the cashing in of a "geographic dividend" rather than a comprehensive recovery of the ecosystem.

The "Rules of the Game" on the High Seas

While Japan's production soared, the overall situation in the North Pacific saury fishery remains severe. The total allowable catch (TAC) set by the North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC) for 2025 was 333,750 tons. However, the combined catch of Japan, China, Taiwan, Russia, and South Korea only reached approximately 100,000 tons, far below the quota limit.

This starkly reveals a core contradiction: the resource base itself is still fragile. The surge in Japan's catch is largely attributed to the concentration of fish schools near its waters, not an overall increase in biomass. The "resource dividend" brought by the westward shift of fishing grounds may be temporary. Once ocean currents change again, the fragile balance could be broken.

Market Ripples and Future Uncertainties

The surge in production has directly impacted market prices. In Japan, the wholesale price for fresh saury at the major Toyosu Market in Tokyo has dropped to a range of 300-500 yen per kilogram, nearly halving compared to the same period last year. For consumers, this is good news, but for fishermen, it means that increased volume does not necessarily translate to increased income.

Looking ahead, the sustainability of the saury resource remains the biggest question mark. Scientists warn that the current fishing pressure still exceeds the resource's recovery capacity. The NPFC is discussing further reducing the total allowable catch for 2026, and Japan may also need to adjust its domestic catch limits. The "royal return" of the saury is more like a brief interlude in a long-running play about marine resources. How to find a balance between harvesting and conservation will be a persistent test for all fishing nations surrounding the North Pacific.

In my view, this data tells a story far more complex than a simple ranking change. It's a vivid case study of how climate change alters marine ecosystems, how geopolitical and resource management policies interact, and how global markets respond. Japan's temporary lead highlights the fragility of our dependence on natural systems. The real victory won't be about who catches the most next year, but about whether the international community can establish a truly sustainable management framework before the next crisis hits.