Russian Pollock Paradox: Why Rising Catches Mean Higher Prices

Pollock

In 2025, the catch of Russian pollock increased by 6.8% year-on-year, but this did not prevent the CFR China price of raw materials from soaring to 1,730 US dollars per ton - approaching the historical high point after the 2008 financial crisis.

The seemingly contradictory phenomenon of "more fish but higher prices" is currently unfolding in the global pollock industry chain.

Rising Catches vs. Soaring Prices

According to official data, Russia's total wild fish production in 2025 reached 4.2411 million tons. Among these, pollock accounted for a substantial 46.7%, marking a significant increase of 6.8% compared to the previous year. However, this positive production news is juxtaposed with a concerning rise in prices.

By the 49th week of 2025 (December 1–7), the CFR China price for headed and gutted (H&G) pollock raw material had climbed to 1,720 USD per ton, representing a 20 USD increase from the previous week. This price point is notably about 25% higher than the low point recorded at the beginning of the year.

Four Key Factors Behind the Price Surge

Despite the increased supply, several critical factors are pushing prices upward, creating a supply-demand imbalance in the market.

1. 1. Supply Shortages in Europe

   Sanctions imposed by the European Union have severely disrupted the supply of Russian-origin cod and haddock. As a result, European processors are compelled to shift their sourcing to pollock, creating a surge in demand from this traditionally major market.

2. 2. Pre-Chinese New Year Stockpiling

   The Chinese New Year in 2026 falls relatively late on February 17. This timing necessitates Chinese factories to secure their raw material supplies well in advance, typically before mid-February. The concentrated procurement activity during this period exerts strong upward pressure on spot prices.

   

3. 3. Anticipation of Higher Contract Prices

   Market expectations are already influencing current behavior. Russian suppliers have reportedly quoted contract prices for 2026 at around 1,500 USD per ton, which is approximately 220–270 USD higher than the average price in the first quarter of 2025. This anticipated price increase encourages buyers to purchase earlier, further tightening the spot market.

4. 4. Geopolitical "Sanction Premium"

   The 13.7% tariff imposed by the EU on Russian pollock has significantly narrowed the price gap between Russian and American pollock. This additional cost is being passed on to buyers, effectively creating a "sanction premium" that contributes to the overall price increase.

Broader Industry Insights

The situation with pollock is part of a larger picture in Russian fisheries, where different species are experiencing divergent trends.

• High-Value Species Growth: While pollock production is robust, other high-value species like herring and salmon have seen even stronger growth, with production increases of 31.4% and 42.6% respectively in 2025. This reflects the strong market demand for premium fish products.

• Challenges Remain: Despite the positive figures, challenges persist in the industry. The Russian Agricultural Bank's Ecological Assessment Center has highlighted that issues regarding cod fishing quotas remain unresolved, with hopes for significant improvements in the next fishing season.

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"The sea gives, but the market decides."

——Industry Analyst