Pollock Prices Surge Again: Chinese Double-Frozen Products Become Europe’s Only Spot Supply Anchor

Ahead of the global seafood exhibition in Barcelona in late April 2026, the European market for frozen block pollock fillets has seen another wave of price hikes. Chinese double-frozen pollock products have become the only source for large-volume spot purchases by European buyers, with prices hitting record highs and reshaping the global pollock pricing landscape.

1. Severe Spot Shortage: US and Russian Supplies Nearly Sold Out

The current price surge is driven primarily by extreme spot shortages rather than a sudden spike in demand:

• US Season A pollock fillet production (PBO) fell 17.5% year-on-year to just 45,619 tonnes, around 10,000 tonnes lower than in the same period of 2025. Quota targets were not met due to ice conditions, fishing difficulties, and low yield rates, leading some producers to suspend operations early.

• Russian fillet output rose 5% year-on-year, but much of the supply came from vessels without EU approval numbers. Coupled with sanctions, eligible export volumes to the EU shrank sharply, while strong domestic pricing reduced incentives for overseas sales.

• Nearly all available single-frozen supplies from the US and Russia for Season A have been cleared, with only small trader inventories likely to become available during the exhibition. European processors are rushing to secure raw materials for July retail contracts, creating intense market tightness.
  

2. Chinese Products Surge: From Supplementary to Price-Setting Staple

As supply gaps widened, Chinese double-frozen block fillets have emerged as the core of market pricing, fundamentally shifting the longstanding US and Russian dominance:

• In April, FOB quotes for Chinese double-frozen whole block fillets increased by $200–300 per tonne, reaching an all-time high.

• Including freight, cold storage costs, and the 13.7% EU tariff on Russian raw materials, landed and warehoused costs approached $5,000 per tonne.

• Industry forecasts suggest upcoming Season B single-frozen quotations from the US and Russia will rise in line with Chinese double-frozen prices, temporarily putting Chinese supply in control of pricing.

Behind the sharp price increases is a surge in raw material costs. Russian H&G pollock prices have jumped 35% since January, leaving processors with little choice but to raise prices to protect margins. Large, reliable factories continue to push up new order prices.

3. European End-Market Under Pressure, Retail Prices Set to Rise

Raw material inflation has already reached European retail channels:

• Current retail prices of around €2.49 per 400g pack of fish sticks are no longer sustainable, with expectations of increases to €2.99–3.19 or higher.

• Whether higher retail prices will cool demand remains the biggest uncertainty. The industry predicts supply-demand rebalancing may be delayed until the fourth quarter of 2026.
  

4. Shifting Market Structure: China Emerges as a Stabilizer in the Pollock Market

European buyers are now approaching Chinese suppliers not mainly for better prices, but to secure stable supply and on-time delivery. Chinese double-frozen pollock has evolved from a secondary alternative to a cornerstone of Europe’s spot market, significantly strengthening China’s role in the global pollock supply chain.

In the short term, pollock prices are likely to remain firm and prone to further increases. Over the medium to long term, market direction in the second half of 2026 will depend on the progress of US and Russian Season B fishing, the resilience of European demand, and the ability of Chinese processors to secure raw materials.