In Week 16 of 2026, China’s ocean-going squid market has seen a long-awaited recovery, with prices for Southeast Pacific (Peruvian) squid rising across the board, becoming the focus of the frozen seafood sector this week. Is this rebound a true market turnaround, or just a phase of correction? Based on the latest market data, this article analyzes the logic behind the moves.

1. Broad Price Rebound: Whole Round Squid Leads, Three Major Parts Rise in Tandem

After prolonged pressure in the early period, quotations for all sizes of Peruvian squid rebounded collectively this week, with whole round products posting the strongest gains:

• Extra-small whole round squid up CNY 800; small whole round squid up CNY 750

• Three major parts rose simultaneously: tail fins up CNY 400, mantles up CNY 525

Data from the Zhejiang Agricultural Products Center shows online trading of Southeast Pacific squid reached 2,442 tonnes this week, with steady buying support at lower levels and a clear improvement in market sentiment.

2. Core Logic of the Rebound: Tighter Supply Rhythm, Not a Demand Surge

This round of price increases was not driven by a sudden jump in demand, but by price correction following a temporary tightening on the supply side:

1. Fishing activity at sea has adjusted, slowing short-term output and easing supply pressure from earlier concentrated arrivals

2. Peruvian local and domestic markets are out of sync: fishing volume has rebounded and local prices have fallen, while the domestic rally purely reflects trading dynamics and inventory changes

3. High seas production remains weak: daily output per vessel is only 3–5 tonnes, insufficient to support a strong upward trend

In short: this is not a shortage-driven rally, but a technical correction after an extended decline.

3. Lingering Concerns: High Inventory Cap Upside Potential

Although prices have recovered, the market foundation remains fragile, with two major pressures still in place:

1. Port inventories remain high: inventory pressure has not substantially eased; downstream buyers only restock for rigid demand, with weak willingness to build proactive stockpiles

2. Continuous incoming cargo: customs clearance volume of ocean-caught squid at Zhoushan Port increased month-on-month, with no obvious reluctance to sell, as goods continue to flow into the market

This means the current rally is only a phased correction, not a trend reversal. Whether prices can hold firm will depend on end-market consumption and inventory digestion.

4. Global Production Area Comparison: Southeast Pacific Recovers, Others Stable

The squid market showed a divergent pattern this week, with no broad-based rise:

• Southwest Pacific: quotations generally stable; only small sizes under 100g up CNY 250, trading thin at 195 tonnes

• Argentina: early-season fishing performance fell short of expectations; cumulative catch neared last year’s full-year volume, with no significant price decline

• Northwest Pacific and Indian Ocean: quotations flat, market range-bound with little volatility

The clear main theme: Southeast Pacific leads the recovery, while other regions hold steady and watch.

5. Market Outlook: Short-Term Correction, Cautious on Chasing Highs

Overall, the Week 16 rebound in Peruvian squid is essentially a supply-demand rebalancing after overselling in the early stage, without a foundation for sustained gains.

• Positive factors: slower fishing pace, buying support at low levels, providing room for price recovery

• Negative factors: high port inventories, rigid downstream procurement, abundant local supply, limiting upside

Trading strategy: restock as needed for rigid demand, avoid blind buying at higher levels. Focus on tracking port inventory digestion, arrival rhythm, and recovery in end-consumer demand.