Pollock Market Surges in March 2026

Chinese Double-Frozen pollock Prices Hit Record Highs, European Buying Widens Price Gap

The March 2026 Boston Seafood Show sent a clear signal: Chinese double-frozen pollock PBO quotations have fully exceeded Russian and US A-season single-frozen contract prices. After accounting for tariffs and freight, European delivered prices are US$200–300 per ton higher, pushing the global pollock supply chain into a strong boom cycle driven by shrinking supply and concentrated demand.

1. Price Surge: Chinese Double-Frozen Hits All-Time Highs

• Chinese PBO (using Russian H&G raw material) FOB prices rose US$450/ton month-on-month, reaching a record high.

• After the EU eliminated Russia’s 0% tariff quota on raw materials, both Chinese and Russian products are subject to a 13.7% tariff, and Chinese products maintain a significant premium under equal competition.

• Russian and US single-frozen prices have converged, with the US single-frozen PBO assessed price raised by US$100/ton, lifting the global price benchmark.

2. Core Drivers of Price Rises: Supply, Demand and Processing

1. Raw Material Side: Tight Catches, Surging Costs

• Russian H&G raw material prices also hit new highs, with catch volumes down 12%–20% year-on-year.

• Weak resource expectations in the western Bering Sea led Chinese processors to lock in raw materials aggressively.

• Many Chinese firms misjudged the market early in the year and failed to secure enough contracted volume. Spot raw material costs are US$300–350/ton higher than early-year contracts, with some suppliers attempting to renegotiate old agreements.

2. Demand Side: Concentrated European Restocking

• Russian and US A-season single-frozen contracts are nearly fully booked, making double-frozen product the only incremental source for Europe.

• Downstream retail fulfillment pressure forced high-price restocking.

• Historically high prices for cod and haddock shifted demand toward pollock, further boosting prices.

3. Logistics and Production: Multiple Constraints Tighten Supplies

• Rising fuel costs and Middle East tensions have lengthened shipping routes and slowed reefer container turnover, raising transport expenses.

• US processing is constrained: lower roe maturity reduced yields, and H-2B visa shortages left skilled labor at only 70%, dragging down efficiency.

• Russian PBO output rose 14% but much failed EU entry standards; US PBO output fell 24%, creating structural supply imbalances.

3. Market Structure: Games and Outlook at Historic Highs

• Extreme price volatility: European delivered prices peaked near US$5,000/ton in the 2022 B season, then dropped to just US$2,100–2,200/ton in June 2024. The current supply-driven rally differs from past cycles.

• Pricing paused: Russian and US companies suspended B-season single-frozen negotiations, with talks set to resume at the April European seafood show. Prices are likely to remain firm in the short term.

4. Industry Impact and Future Outlook

1. Chinese processors: High raw material costs squeeze margins, testing order fulfillment and pricing strategies.

2. European channels: Rising input costs may gradually pass through to retail and foodservice.

3. Global whitefish: Pollock remains cost-competitive, with substitution effects supporting high prices.

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In the near term, prices will stay strong as raw material shortages, European restocking, and tight logistics persist. The April European seafood show will be critical for B-season pricing, with close watch on catch recovery, tariff policies, and freight trends.