Norway’s Halved Quota Drives Up Mackerel Prices; Japan Faces Dilemma of Rising Prices, Weak Demand and Shrinking Purchases

Mackerel serves as a vital aquatic raw material for Japanese households, sushi processing and the canning industry. Market supply consists of domestically caught Japanese chub mackerel and imported Atlantic mackerel mainly from Norway. For the 2026 fishing season, a sharp cut in Norway’s fishing quota has pushed international export quotations of mackerel to new highs. The price surge has passed through to Japanese wholesale markets, yet end-consumer demand remains sluggish. As a result, Japanese importers have opted to curb procurement, creating a typical industry scenario where rising costs cannot be fully passed down the supply chain.

Supply Side: Norway’s Quota Halved, Multiple Factors Boost Export Quotes

The core driver behind the current mackerel price hike lies in supply contraction. Norway’s total annual mackerel fishing quota for 2026 has been reduced to 81,000 tonnes, a 50% drop compared with 2025. As of September 17, nearly 36,000 tonnes of the annual quota had been harvested, close to half of the total allowance. During Week 38, rough sea weather disrupted fishing operations, yielding only 3,000 tonnes of catch. Most of the haul came from fishing vessels of the Faroe Islands and Iceland, while limited catches by Norwegian vessels further tightened supply.

In terms of pricing, Norway’s export quotation for Atlantic mackerel has climbed to USD 6.20 per kilogram. Broken down by size grades: the FOB average price for fish under 600 grams stands at nearly NOK 52 per kg, an increase of roughly 10 kroner year-on-year. Larger fish above 600 grams are priced at NOK 53.44 per kg, hitting a one-year high. Market performances vary by region. Quotes for South Korea and the EU keep rising, while prices offered to Japan and Vietnam have retreated from peaks in the fourth quarter of last year but remain generally elevated.

Japanese Market: Higher Wholesale Prices, Weak End Demand, Buyers Restrict New-season Purchases

Japan, a traditional major consumer of mackerel, has two main supply sources: domestic chub mackerel (available fresh and frozen) and frozen imported Norwegian Atlantic mackerel, which is mostly used for pickling, canning and other deep-processing applications. The two types differ in fat content and specifications. Wholesalers flexibly switch between them to replenish supplies according to market conditions.

Higher costs of Norwegian mackerel have lifted Japan’s import expenses. However, weak retail demand in Japan prevents wholesalers from transferring price increases to supermarkets and end consumers. Faced with the dilemma of rising costs and poor sales, Japanese importers and wholesalers have rationally controlled volumes by limiting purchases of new-season stock, leading to slower transaction activity.

In addition, Japan’s domestic chub mackerel catch fluctuates significantly due to marine environments and fishery resources. When local landings fall short, Japan relies heavily on supplementary frozen imports from Norway and Iceland. The sharp rise in import mackerel costs puts mounting pressure on Japan’s entire mackerel supply chain.

Industry Insights: Trade Game Reshaped Under Fishery Resource Management

This round of mackerel market fluctuation reflects a real-world trade balance among marine resource conservation, quota regulation and consumer demand.

1. Resource management reshapes trade patterns: To achieve sustainable marine fisheries, Norway has drastically cut its fishing quota, directly shrinking the global supply pool of Atlantic mackerel and forming a seller’s market. Importing nations must bear higher raw material costs.

2. Cost transmission has a ceiling: Even if raw material prices go up, downstream retailers will not accept continuous retail price hikes when consumer appetite stays low. Traders mitigate risks by cutting procurement and depleting existing inventories.

3. Alternative sourcing will become normal: The Japanese market will balance supplies between domestic chub mackerel, Icelandic mackerel and other substitute seafood products. Competition among mackerel from different origins will intensify.

Market Outlook

The future trend of Japanese mackerel wholesale prices hinges on two key factors: whether export quotations from Norway and other overseas suppliers will ease, and whether retail consumption in Japan recovers. Against the backdrop of reduced quotas, mackerel will likely stay at high price levels for some time. Aquatic importers should prepare for price volatility risks and closely monitor updates on fishing catches, quotas and end-market consumption data.

This article is compiled based on public information from Foodmate.net for industry exchange only and does not constitute trading or investment advice.