Norway's mackerel exports halve as prices hit record NOK 54/kg
Norway shipped 13,787 tonnes of mackerel in October, half the volume of a year earlier, while the price of whole frozen mackerel set a record at NOK 54 per kilogram. The Norwegian Seafood Council's monthly release on 4 November makes the mechanism plain: catches are smaller, not demand. Buyers in Korea, Japan and Vietnam are being rationed rather than priced out.
The Numbers
October mackerel exports were worth NOK 758 million, down NOK 631 million or 45 per cent year on year, on a 50 per cent volume decline. The average export price was 10 per cent above October 2025. Whole frozen mackerel at NOK 54 per kilogram topped the previous record set in September by NOK 2, the council reported.
Year to date the picture is starker. Norway has exported 81,368 tonnes of mackerel worth NOK 4.3 billion, a 54 per cent volume drop and a 38 per cent value drop. South Korea, Japan and Vietnam remain the three largest destinations, but the losses are concentrated there: Korea is down NOK 170 million or 18 per cent, Vietnam down NOK 569 million or 59 per cent, and China down NOK 419 million or 72 per cent. The only sizeable growth market is the United States, up NOK 32 million or 10 per cent to NOK 364 million.
"The decline in mackerel exports is due to lower quotas and reduced availability of mackerel for export," said Paul T. Aandahl, market analyst at the council. "This is being felt across all the major markets in Asia."
Herring, the obvious substitute in the pelagic complex, is not offering relief. October herring exports fell only 4 per cent in volume to 16,197 tonnes but rose 17 per cent in value to NOK 445 million, with frozen fillets at a record NOK 27 per kilogram and whole frozen herring at NOK 22. Year to date Norway has shipped 183,426 tonnes of herring, up 19 per cent, worth NOK 3.7 billion, up 17 per cent. Germany alone took 2,268 tonnes in October, 69 per cent more than a year earlier.
What It Means for Buyers
The important distinction this season is between a price rally and a supply rally. Mackerel is doing the second one. Norwegian quota cuts have removed volume faster than any market has reduced its appetite, which is why the average price rose 10 per cent while tonnage halved. Paying more does not unlock more fish, and offers quoted against last year's price levels are not coming back this season.
For Asian buyers the workable response is specification substitution rather than origin substitution inside the Northeast Atlantic. North Pacific mackerel and Indian mackerel can carry part of a programme, but they are not drop-in replacements: fat content, size grading and flesh texture differ enough that a Japanese salt-grilled or Korean canned line usually needs re-approval before switching. Buyers should assume a qualification period of several weeks, not days.
Where herring can absorb volume, it will do so at record prices. Frozen fillet at NOK 27 per kilogram and whole fish at NOK 22 mean the spread between the two pelagic staples has narrowed sharply, and the old habit of covering a mackerel shortfall with cheap herring no longer works on cost.
Contract structure matters more than usual. Quota-contingent volumes and index-linked pricing protect both sides when the binding constraint is a TAC rather than a market. Buyers who locked flat annual tonnage in early autumn are the ones now facing shortfalls in the last two months of the year.
What to Watch
The 2027 Northeast Atlantic mackerel quota and the coastal state sharing arrangement, which sets the ceiling for next season's exports.
November and December shipment volumes, as the remaining Norwegian quota is used up ahead of the year-end.
Korean and Japanese import data for Pacific mackerel, the clearest signal that buyers have started to re-qualify specifications.
Herring fillet flows into Poland and Germany, where European demand could tighten an already record-priced market.
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This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI and is published for general information only. It does not constitute trading, pricing, or investment advice, and readers should verify all figures against the original sources linked above before making commercial decisions. Content on this page is partly AI-generated. Easy Seafood makes no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.
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