Global Mackerel Prices Soar: Norway’s Supply Price to S. Korea Nearly Doubles, S. Korea’s Surge in Imports Still Fails to Ease Cost Pressure

In 2025, the global mackerel market is hit by "supply contraction and price surge": Norway’s supply price of frozen mackerel to South Korea has risen from 2.26 USD/unit to 4.35 USD/unit, with an increase of nearly 92%; due to tight inventory and high import dependence, South Korea has become a "sensitive area" for price fluctuations.

1. Root Cause of Price Hike: Reduced Quotas in the Northeast Atlantic, Global Supply "Shrinks"

• Core Reason: Fishing quotas in the Northeast Atlantic (the world’s main mackerel producing area) have been continuously reduced, leading to a sharp drop in catches in Norway, the UK, the Netherlands and other countries (Norway’s 2025 catch decreased by 18% compared with 2024).

• Dilemma in South Korea: Local mackerel catches have declined due to the depletion of offshore resources, and inventory has hit a five-year low; from January to July 2025, South Korea’s imports of frozen mackerel reached 39,292 tons (a 54% increase compared with the same period in 2024), but it has fallen into a cycle of "the more it imports, the higher the costs".

2. South Korea’s Market Under Pressure: Wholesale Prices Rise 20% in a Week, Downstream Trapped in Cost Dilemma

• Price Surge: The wholesale price of Norwegian frozen mackerel in 20kg cartons was 100,000 KRW (approximately 72.2 USD) in Week 33 (August 18-24), and soared to 120,000 KRW (approximately 86.6 USD) in Week 34 (August 25-31), with a weekly increase of 20% (the largest weekly increase in nearly three years).

• Downstream Pressure:

  • Large supermarkets/chain restaurants: Mackerel is a rigid-demand ingredient, and they cannot increase retail prices for the time being; their profit margins have been squeezed to less than 5%.

  • Small retailers/processing workshops: Unable to bear high prices, they have reduced mackerel purchases and switched to promoting alternative seafood products.

• Future Expectation: The remaining quotas in the Northeast Atlantic are limited, and South Korea’s inventory is continuously being consumed; the "high imports and high prices" situation may persist in the next 1-2 quarters.

3. Conclusion: Supply-Demand Imbalance Awaits Resolution

This price hike is a short-term imbalance between "marine resource conservation" and "market demand" — quota reduction ensures the sustainability of mackerel populations but leads to supply gaps; the rigid demand of importing countries like South Korea has amplified price fluctuations. The industry needs to explore diversified supply channels and develop aquaculture technology to balance "resource conservation" and "market stability".