European Market in Crisis: Russian Pollock Mince Prices Skyrocket, Supply Shortage Hits, Catering Costs Under Pressure

On March 31, 2026, Dongpin Strategy released the latest update: supply of pollock mince in Europe is extremely tight, prices continue to surge, and spot prices of Russian products hit record highs, plunging the market into a buying frenzy. Buyers stated that pollock mince is now harder to obtain than gold.

1. Price Surge: European CIF Prices Jump to $2,900/ton

Since the start of the year, pollock mince prices have been rising steadily, with a sharp increase in March:

• Early this year: US Season A contract prices were around $2,600–2,700/ton, up about $400 from Season B 2025. Russian CIF prices to Europe were roughly $2,400–2,500/ton, with duty-paid ex-warehouse prices at $2,580–2,690/ton, slightly lower than US products.

• Late March: A small number of unsigned Russian spot goods saw CIF prices to Europe soar to $2,800–2,900/ton. US spot stock is nearly sold out, becoming a key driver for Russian price hikes.

Meanwhile, PBO fillets also strengthened. Russian PBO fillets rose about $200/ton from mid-March. With a 13.7% tariff included, they have become more expensive than equivalent US products.

The Chinese market is equally strong: double-frozen pollock fillets processed from Russian H&G raw materials, with duty-paid ex-warehouse prices, have exceeded Russian and American individually quick-frozen (IQF) PBO products, becoming the mainstream source in circulation.

2. Four Key Drivers: Supply and Demand Squeeze Push Prices Higher

(1) Strong Domestic Russian Demand Reduces Export Willingness

Local prices in Russia’s Far East have reached around $2,400/ton, compared with about $2,700/ton CIF to Europe. Domestic sales offer faster payments and simpler procedures, so exporters prioritize the local market, directly reducing supply to Europe.

(2) Surge in Alternative Demand

High prices of cod and haddock have made food service providers highly cost-sensitive. Many have switched to more cost-effective pollock mince. As fillet prices jump, processors have stockpiled mince raw materials, further boosting demand.

(3) Global Supply Contraction

• Lower export volumes from China to Europe;

• Restricted Russian exports;

• Modest production growth in US and Russian Season A (US +6%, Russia +1), far below demand growth, widening the supply gap.

(4) US Spot Stock Runs Out

The US has almost no spot goods left, forcing European buyers to compete for limited Russian supply. Sellers hold pricing power, driving rapid price increases.

3. Market Impact: Catering Under Pressure, Purchasing Strategies Shift

1. Rising catering costs in Europe: High prices for mince and fillets pressure end products such as fish sticks, surimi, and fast-food seafood items.

2. Processor purchasing adjustments: Shifting focus from fillets to securing mince raw materials. Double-frozen products are replacing IQF as mainstream.

3. Divergent price systems: Clear price gaps between Russian, US, and Chinese processed goods, with tariffs, freight, and inventory as key pricing factors.

   
   

4. Market Outlook: High Prices to Persist in the Short Term

Under multiple factors, prices for pollock mince and fillets are unlikely to decline soon:

• Supply: Limited production growth in the US and Russia, lower Chinese exports, and weak Russian export willingness.

• Demand: Alternative demand, catering recovery, and raw material stocking continue to support the market.

  
  

For European buyers, securing spot goods, locking long-term contracts, and finding alternatives will be core strategies. For domestic traders and processors, pollock raw material and finished product prices will remain high.