The costs of mackerel has soared, and the importers are struggling to maintain their profits

Soaring Prices of Norwegian Mackerel Push Japanese Importers to the Brink of Losses | In-depth Analysis of the 2026 Aquaculture Industry

The global seafood market has recently experienced severe turbulence — prices of Norwegian Atlantic mackerel have continued to hit record highs, subjecting Japanese importers to unprecedented cost pressures, severely squeezing their profit margins and pushing some transactions to the verge of loss. This mackerel crisis, triggered by a combination of tighter quotas, exchange rate fluctuations and weak demand transmission, is reshaping the landscape of Asia’s seafood supply chain.

I. Skyrocketing Prices: Norwegian Mackerel Hits Record Highs, Pressuring the Entire Asian Market

Affected by the reduction of fishing quotas in 2025 and expectations of further cuts in 2026, procurement costs of Norwegian mackerel have surged sharply since the autumn of 2025.

In October 2025, the CFR (Cost and Freight) price of Norwegian Atlantic mackerel briefly surged to $5.50–5.60 per kilogram, reaching an all-time high.

In December 2025, the average export price of Norwegian mackerel to Japan soared 67% year-on-year to 46.70 Norwegian kroner per kilogram; prices to China and Vietnam jumped by as much as 95% and 82% respectively. The overall average export price that month exceeded 50 kroner for the first time, surging 81% year-on-year.

Although prices cooled slightly in early 2026, they remained at high levels, with divergent trends across Asian markets due to differences in inventory and procurement rhythms.

Currently, high-quality mackerel of 425–460g supplied by Scottish trawlers is still quoted at $5.40–5.50 per kilogram in Asia, and most Japanese buyers have adopted a wait-and-see approach, refraining from restocking at high prices.

II. Japan’s Predicament: Rising Costs, Stagnant Selling Prices, and Importers Trapped in Price Inversion

Unlike South Korea and Taiwan, China, which have successfully passed on costs to downstream sectors, the Japanese market faces an awkward situation of severe price inversion between costs and selling prices.

The retail price of 400–600g Norwegian mackerel in Japan has long hovered at around 900 yen per kilogram, far below the 980–990 yen needed to cover costs, meaning importers lose money on every sale.

Downstream Japanese processors have extremely low tolerance for price increases, and weak demand has left importers reluctant to raise prices easily, continuously compressing profit margins.

Exchange rate fluctuations have compounded the problem: at the start of the year, the yen briefly depreciated to 158–159 against the US dollar, sharply driving up dollar-denominated procurement costs. Even with a subsequent rebound in the yen, costs were locked in by earlier high-price contracts, leaving companies with little room to recover. Some firms have mixed old and new inventories to dilute costs, but this is only a short-term fix.

III. Obstacles to Substitution: Rising Domestic Mackerel Prices + Miniaturization Fail to Fill Supply Gaps

To ease pressure, Japanese importers and processors have accelerated efforts to seek alternative raw materials, increasing purchases of Pacific mackerel and jack mackerel while attempting to source other fish species from Oceania. However, the path to substitution is fraught with difficulties.

In December 2025, the average landing price of Japanese Pacific mackerel surged 60% year-on-year to 303 yen per kilogram, reflecting a domestic shortage of resources.

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Coastal mackerel in Japan has shown a clear trend toward miniaturization, with a very low proportion of large-sized fish over 500g. Smaller fish have lower fat content and reduced processable ratios, severely weakening their substitution capacity.

IV. Industry Outlook: Arrival of a High-Cost Era and Deep Restructuring of Japan’s Mackerel Industry Chain

Amid overlapping pressures, the operating space for Japanese mackerel importers continues to shrink. The industry widely predicts that the high-cost era for mackerel is unlikely to end in the short term.

Expectations of continued tightening of fishing quotas will sustain high international prices over the long term.

Issues such as yen exchange rate volatility and weak downstream demand transmission cannot be resolved quickly.

Japan’s mackerel industry chain is forced to enter a deeper phase of restructuring. Processors and traders must accelerate raw material diversification and optimize cost structures to cope with this prolonged crisis.

Conclusion

The surge in Norwegian mackerel prices is not merely a price fluctuation of a single species, but a microcosm of tightening global fishery resources and supply chain restructuring. For import-dependent Japan, as well as major processing and consuming nations such as China and Vietnam, balancing costs, supply and demand will be the core challenge for the aquaculture industry in 2026.