China’s Atlantic Cod Market: Prices Appear Stable Amid Dual Tug-of-War Between Plunging Norwegian Supply and Widening Price Gaps for Russian Cargoes

In Week 38 of 2026, CIF quotations for frozen Atlantic cod H&G (head and gutted) into China remained nominally steady. Nevertheless, major shifts are unfolding at source markets. A sharp drop in Norwegian trawl catches, softening auction prices, and widening price differentials between compliant and non-compliant Russian consignments are building pressure that may reshape China’s cod prices later on.

Norway: Lower Quotas, Collapsing Catches and Early Price Weakness

Norway is a key supplier of Atlantic cod. Its total cod quota for 2026 was cut by 18% year-on-year to 143,304 tonnes, setting the stage for tighter supply.

Week 37 figures are striking: Norwegian trawlers landed merely 47 tonnes of cod, down a dramatic 96% year-on-year. Cumulative catch over the prior four weeks fell 78% versus last year. Up to Week 37, the annual cumulative catch stood at 117,208 tonnes, a 16% year-on-year decline. Remaining available quota is 27% lower than in the same period last year, pointing to an emerging supply gap. Haddock trawl landings also shrank sharply to only 1 tonne that week.

Scarce supply would normally underpin prices, yet auction markets tell a different story. The average auction price for frozen H&G cod of 1–2.5kg size fell to NOK 85.26/kg, with some deals closing near NOK 80/kg. Total auction volume for the week was just 302.9 tonnes. It should be noted that these transactions included Grade B, non‑MSC certified Greenlandic fish, so the dip does not equal across-the-board price cuts for standard MSC Norwegian cod. Even so, this softening trend is being closely watched by Chinese importers.

Norwegian Seafood Council export statistics confirm tight overall availability. From the start of the year through Week 37, the average export price of frozen whole cod reached NOK 103.85/kg. A stronger Norwegian krone further raises the actual procurement cost for Chinese buyers settling in USD or CNY.

Divergence in Russian Supplies: Sanctions Drive Large Price Gaps

Russian cod shipments show a clear two-tiered market. CIF rates for EU-approved compliant cargoes to China are relatively stable, while the price gap between shipments from sanctioned entities and compliant supplies has widened to USD 700–900 per tonne. Low-priced Russian cargoes entering China squeeze pricing power for other suppliers.

The haddock market mirrors this pattern: Russian offers are weaker while Norwegian prices hold firm, yet real transaction volume remains sluggish. Industry observers note that flat headline quotations do not signal active trading; instead, thin activity has prevented true market price discovery.

Global Context: Cod Enters a Supply Contraction Cycle

FAO data shows global frozen cod imports reached roughly 560,000 tonnes in 2025, a drop of 85,000 tonnes year-on-year. China remains the world’s largest importer of frozen cod. For 2026, cod quotas in the Northeast Arctic continue to be reduced, meaning supply contraction is an industry-wide reality.

China’s CIF prices held steady in Week 38, creating a contradictory market picture. Tight Norwegian catches would logically resist price falls, yet auctions have softened. Cheap Russian cargoes keep pressuring the market, though turnover is not booming.

Market Outlook

The current price equilibrium is only temporary. If Norwegian auction prices keep declining and low-cost Russian shipments capture more market share, the present stable quotation level in China will likely break. Importers need to closely monitor Norwegian auction trends, Russian price spreads and exchange-rate movements to manage purchasing schedules prudently.

Summary: The Atlantic cod market is now in a phase of “stable prices but changing volumes”. Listed quotations have not moved, but fundamental shifts in harvest levels, auction results and supply composition have already occurred. Risks are building beneath the surface.