Battle for Survival Amid Halved Quotas: 2025 Cod Industry Changes

The global cod industry faced its most severe supply crisis in three decades in 2025: the total cod quota for the northeastern Arctic, jointly set by Norway and Russia, dropped to 340,000 tons, a 25% decrease from 2024. This marked the lowest level since 1991 and exceeded the conventional limit of "no more than 20% annual quota reduction". Quota adjustments triggered by cod stock decline are forcing a restructuring of the entire industrial chain.

1. Quota Reduction: Ecological Red Lines and Scientific Game

The core reason for the quota cut is that the spawning cod stock in the Barents Sea has fallen below the scientific early warning line. Norway's Ministry of Fisheries broke the conventional limit in the name of "stock protection". The 340,000-ton quota is a result of multi-party negotiations: although it plummeted compared with 2024, it is higher than the researchers' proposal of a "31% reduction".

Geopolitical factors have increased complexity: after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, ICES suspended relevant activities involving Russia, and quota assessment was transferred to a Sino-Russian bilateral institution; Norway exempted fishery cooperation from sanctions against Russia to ensure resource management channels. Meanwhile, the Greenland halibut quota decreased by 2,250 tons to 19,000 tons, only the haddock quota (130,000 tons) slightly exceeded expectations, becoming a supply-demand buffer.

2. Industrial Chain Shock: From "Quota Competition" to "Efficiency Competition"

Fishing sector: Norway's 163,000-ton cod quota was reallocated, forcing small and medium-sized fishing vessels to merge for survival; Russian enterprises had a quota similar to Norway's, but locked in cooperation with Chinese processors in advance due to logistics restrictions.

Processing and trade sector: The wholesale price of 1-2kg Norwegian cod in Europe exceeded 10 euros/kg (a 35% annual increase), but raw material shortage reduced the operating rate of processing plants to less than 60%, with some switching to haddock production.

Chinese market: The CIF quotation of Norwegian cod rose by 40% annually; Russian cod customs clearance extended to 10 days due to upgraded inspection standards. Enterprises adjusted procurement ratios (40% cod, 50% haddock, 10% pollock) to hedge risks.

3. Breakthrough Path: Dual Efforts in Technology and Ecology

Technology-driven efficiency: Norwegian enterprises adopted acoustic detection and AI fishing condition systems, reducing fuel consumption by 15% per unit catch; Russia promoted selective fishing nets (reducing juvenile fish bycatch), with qualified enterprises receiving a 5% quota reward.

Product upgrading: European enterprises processed small-sized cod into high-value products such as ready-to-eat surimi and fish oil (increasing output value by 2-3 times); Chinese enterprises focused on household scenarios, with e-commerce sales of processed cod products increasing by 62% year-on-year in October, with a premium rate of 50%.

Ecological collaboration: Norway and Russia launched joint monitoring (satellite tracking + underwater observation network) and quarterly dynamic quota assessment, establishing a "protection-development" balance mechanism.

4. Conclusion

The quota crisis epitomizes the fishery's transformation from "resource dependence" to "ecological synergy". Chinese enterprises need to focus on "species substitution + processing value-added + channel innovation" and deepen compliant cooperation with Norway and Russia to cope with market fluctuations.