The New Pollock Game: Record-High Prices Trigger Global Supply Chain Restructuring
- EVEN
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
I. Supply Side: Double Tightening from Russia's Output Cut and U.S. Quota Reduction Sparks a Market Boom
As of the end of February 2026, Russia's total pollock catch stood at 152,600 metric tons, a 13% year-on-year decline. Sanctions imposed by the EU on fishing groups like Norebo, the lack of EU fishing licenses for new vessels, and production constraints at enterprises such as Gidostroy have led to a continuous contraction of compliant export supplies. The United States has set its total 2026 pollock quota at 1.534 million metric tons, a 2.9% drop compared to the previous year. The quota for the Gulf of Alaska was slashed by a significant 26%. Following the start of the A-season fishing, stockpiles have been rapidly depleted, resulting in a tight supply situation in the spot market.
II. Price War: Two Major Producers Push Prices Higher, Chinese Processing Sector Follows with Price Hikes
The CFR China price for Russian 25+ size H&G pollock rose by $50 per ton in a week to break through $1,925 per ton, hitting a historical high since 2008. The CFR China price for U.S. Alaska H&G pollock soared to $2,200–$2,300 per ton, an increase of $400–$500 per ton from the last season. Driven by cost transmission, the FOB price of Chinese secondary frozen pollock fillet blocks was adjusted upward by a cumulative $400–$500 per ton. The supply of individually frozen PBO (previously frozen out) products is nearly exhausted, forcing buyers to switch to secondary frozen products.
III. Core Focus of the Game: Geopolitical Barriers, Certification Thresholds, and Channel Redistribution
EU Rule Restructuring: The EU has abolished the zero-tariff quota for Russian pollock and imposed a 13.7% most-favored-nation tariff. It has also strengthened origin recognition, with products made from Russian materials processed in China still classified as of Russian origin, leading to a sharp rise in compliance costs.
Certification and Trade Barriers: MSC certification has become an entry threshold. The certification process for some of Russia's fishing fleets has stagnated, causing it to lose high value-added markets in Europe and the United States. New U.S. import regulations for aquatic products, which took effect in January, have further raised compliance thresholds.
Channel Shift: Russia is accelerating its layout in Asia. Its fishmeal output reached 89,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to exceed 100,000 tons in 2026. The United States is vying for market share in Europe and China, planning to compete with prices $400–$500 per ton lower. The Barcelona Seafood Show will become a crucial battlefield for determining pricing.
IV. Outlook: Volatility at High Levels, Irreversible Pattern Shifts
In the short term, the tight raw material supply and sanctions effects will persist, keeping prices in a state of historical high volatility. In the long run, Russia will further deepen its supply chain layout in Asia, the United States will consolidate its dominant market share in Europe and the United States, and China will maintain its position as a global processing hub. The tripartite game will become a normalized, and cost pressures will continue to be transmitted to the catering and retail ends.
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