The Game of Supply and Demand Behind the Surge in International Mackerel Prices

In early 2026, the global seafood market was stirred up once again, as Norwegian mackerel set off a huge wave with record-breaking performance. Its average export price surpassed 50 Norwegian kroner per kilogram (approximately US$4.97) for the first time, hitting an all-time high and writing a new chapter in seafood market trends.

What is particularly unusual is the sharp contrast between rising prices and falling volumes. According to official data from the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC), in January 2026, Norway’s mackerel exports stood at only 9,086 metric tons, plummeting 63% year-on-year to a recent low for the same period. Export value also dropped 37% year-on-year. This extreme trend of “collapsing volume but strong prices” clearly reflects the deep imbalance between supply and demand in the global seafood market, as well as a hidden battle without smoke.

Behind this price surge are three key forces driving mackerel prices higher against the trend:

First, a sharp cut in quotas has put inherent pressure on the supply side. In 2026, Norway’s mackerel fishing quota was reduced again to 85,500 metric tons, a 44% decrease from 2025. The overall annual supply has been greatly compressed, establishing a seller-dominated market from the source, where the law of scarcity is fully demonstrated.

Second, policy changes have intensified competition for raw materials. New regulations in the UK require that at least 70% of catches by local fishing vessels be landed domestically. This policy has directly squeezed the raw material supply for Norwegian companies, worsening the already tight supply and further aggravating the supply-demand imbalance.

Third, resilient demand, especially from Asian markets, provides solid support. Despite high prices, the rigid demand for high-quality mackerel in Asian markets such as Japan and South Korea remains strong, acting as the anchor for price stability. In 2025, these three major Asian destinations accounted for nearly 60% of Norway’s total mackerel export value, injecting sustained momentum into the price rally.

The price surge has also triggered a chain reaction across the industrial chain, most notably the restructuring of trade routes. To avoid Japan’s high import tariff of 7%–10%, more Norwegian mackerel is taking a detour strategy: shipped from Norway, processed in Vietnam and China, then re-exported to Japan. While this eases part of the tariff burden, it also increases logistical complexity and time costs, representing a forced adaptation of the industry to the new market reality.

The Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) has also warned that the impact of high prices will eventually be passed on to end consumers. As cost pressures gradually spread to retail and catering sectors, consumption volume is expected to drop significantly. Mackerel may move away from its image as an affordable seafood and gradually transform into a premium delicacy, bringing an irreversible shift to its consumption structure.

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