Thai Tuna December Outlook: Prices Ease, Demand Cools

Quick TakeBangkok skipjack CFR slips to $1,525/mt, down $50 on the week.Post-holiday demand lull meets rising supply from both the Indian & Pacific Oceans.

Price Pulse

Week 48 (24–30 Nov) Bangkok whole round skipjack CFR: $1,525/mt, –$50 WoW.

Manta, Ecuador dock-side price mirrors the slide at $1,800/mt; MSC-certified lots still command a $50 premium.

Demand & Supply Chill

Demand: EU/US buyers wrapped Christmas pre-stocking; December enters its seasonal demand vacuum.

Supply:

• Indian Ocean: major fleets rushing year-end quotas, yellowfin tuna allocations depleting fast.

• Pacific: catch rates showing early signs of recovery, yet wild stock rebound remains fragile.

Market Thermometer

· Bangkok CFR ↓ $50 WoW· Manta dock ↓ in tandem· EU/US demand post-holiday vacuum

Local Disruption: Thai Floods

Brief shutdowns at some Hat Yai canneries due to flooding; affected capacity is a sliver of global supply—impact on overall pricing negligible.

Forward View

Industry consensus: additional downward pressure on skipjack prices through year-end as Indian Ocean year-end surges and Pacific catches improve. If EU Q1 restocking underwhelms, the slide could extend into early 2026.

🎣

Christmas restocking is over—

tuna’s winter story has only just begun.