Shrimp Prices Soar Worldwide: From Disease Outbreaks to Trade Deals – Why Every Country’s Crisis Tells a Different Story

Behind the global surge in shrimp prices in the 31st week of 2025 (July 28 to August 3) lies a complex tapestry of divergent narratives. While the "universal price hike" dominates headlines, the forces driving costs upward vary drastically across major producing nations—from disease outbreaks and climate disruptions to high-stakes trade negotiations—collectively reshaping the global shrimp supply chain.

Ecuador: Price Hikes Meet Chinese Buyer Resistance​

As a key player in global shrimp exports, Ecuador’s pricing trends hold significant sway over market sentiment. This week, pond prices for medium and large-sized shrimp in the country continued their upward climb, aligning with earlier forecasts of reduced yields due to cooler temperatures. However, exporters’ frequent price increases have sparked strong resistance from Chinese buyers. Currently, domestic wholesale spot prices are severely disconnected from futures gains, with purchasers adopting a wait-and-see approach, leaving the market in a delicate state of "rising prices with stagnant volumes."​

India: White Spot Disease Triggers Supply Crisis​

India’s modest shrimp price uptick this week masks an unfolding industry crisis. Farmers in Andhra Pradesh confirmed outbreaks of white spot disease in local shrimp ponds, causing a sharp contraction in raw material supplies. Consequently, pond prices for all sizes of white shrimp rose by 1.1%-2.0%, with the 70-count/kg grade up 1.6%, 60-count/kg up 1.5%, and 80-count/kg up 1.8%. Industry insiders revealed that to avoid losses, farmers are rushing to harvest early, creating the most acute supply gaps in the 60-70 count range and pushing market prices into a period of "daily adjustments."​

Vietnam: Trade Deals Bolster Pricing Confidence​

Vietnamese shrimp prices stabilized and rebounded this week, with processors maintaining steady order procurement rhythms. A critical underpinning comes from its trade agreement with the U.S.—while the 20% export tax adds costs, Vietnam’s mature supply chain has effectively absorbed this pressure. Notably, Vietnamese black tiger shrimp also sustained upward momentum, signaling growing competitiveness in its diversified product portfolio within international markets.​

Indonesia: The "Outlier" Defying the Trend​

Amidst the global shrimp price rally, Indonesia stands out as a rare "contrarian." Despite reaching a trade deal with the U.S. on July 15 that stabilized export taxes at 19% (successfully avoiding punitive tariff risks), latest data shows Indonesian shrimp prices declining rather than rising. This anomaly, starkly contrasting with global trends, may stem from domestic inventory digestion and aquaculture cycle adjustments, with long-term impacts requiring further observation.​

Thailand: Passive Price Hikes Under Tariff Pressure​

Thai shrimp prices reversed declines in the 30th week, with 60-count/kg up 1.8% week-on-week and 70-80 count/kg up 1.9%. However, this uptick is largely reactive—with no new trade deal with the U.S. in place, Thai shrimp exports will face a 36% tariff starting August 1. Markets have turned to price hikes to buffer potential costs, though whether international buyers will accept such "preemptive increases" remains uncertain.​

From a global perspective, the 31st week’s shrimp price fluctuations have transcended simple supply-demand adjustments. The interplay of trade policies and industry crises is amplifying market uncertainty. For importing nations, balancing cost management with supply stability amid rising prices; for exporters, navigating disease control and trade negotiations to secure advantages—these will define the core tensions in the global shrimp market for the foreseeable future.