Rumble in the Fish Tank: China's Tilapia Collapse Amid U.S. Trade Standoff – What Happens After August 12

The summer of 2025 has brought an unprecedented chill to China's tilapia industry. Industry data reveals that during the 31st week (July 28 to August 3), tilapia prices plummeted to an all-time low. In Guangdong, the ex-farm price for 500-800g tilapia dropped another 0.2 yuan per kilogram, with similar declines reported in major producing regions like Hainan and Guangxi. Prices have now fallen below the cost of cultivation, squeezing farmers' profit margins to near zero, leaving the entire industry trapped in the paradox of "the more you sell, the more you lose."

Behind this price crisis lies a chain reaction triggered by the deadlock in U.S.-China trade talks. As China's primary export market for tilapia, the complete halt of orders from U.S. buyers has become the straw that broke the industry's back. A previous agreement reached in Geneva offered a glimmer of hope, temporarily slashing U.S. tariffs on Chinese tilapia from 179% to 55%. However, this brief reprieve failed to spark a meaningful recovery in purchases. With the August 12 deadline for the "90-day tariff suspension" fast approaching, caution in the U.S. market has intensified, bringing orders to a near-standstill and creating a classic scenario of "falling prices without sales."

The slump in the U.S. domestic market has worsened the predicament. Data from the 30th week shows that prices for Chinese frozen tilapia fillets fell by $0.05 per pound week-on-week, a decline of 1.4%-1.6% across all sizes—yet this failed to stimulate demand. High channel inventories and sluggish retail consumption have combined to keep importers on the sidelines, waiting for policy clarity. A senior executive at a Hainan export firm lamented, "Even rock-bottom prices won’t move the needle now. Clients fear policy risks; no one wants to take the gamble."

To make matters worse, warnings of Typhoon Vipa in late July prompted some farmers to harvest early to avoid losses, further glutting the market. Caught between a supply surge and stalled orders, tilapia prices have seen their steepest drop in years.

All eyes now turn to the next round of U.S.-China trade negotiations. The July 28 meeting between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Sweden has raised hopes for a new agreement before the suspension expires. Local governments are encouraging enterprises to explore alternative markets, but the long-standing export structure centered on the U.S. is unlikely to shift drastically anytime soon.

For millions in China’s tilapia sector, uncertainty is the biggest enemy. If no new deal is reached by August 12, tariffs could revert to higher levels than the current 55%, pushing an already struggling industry deeper into crisis. Caught between international policy wrangling and market volatility, they wait with bated breath, clinging to faint hopes of a turnaround.