Pollock Prices Surge Again: Russia's B Season Fishing Triggers Global Supply Chain Turbulence, Downstream Caution Mounts

Rising Import Prices in China: The price of 25+H&G (headed and gutted) pollock imported by China has surged to around $1,450/ton, a $50–$100/ton increase from April–May. The West Bering Sea production area commands an additional premium due to quality advantages.
High Domestic Prices in Russia: The tax-inclusive quotation for H&G pollock in Russia stands at 123–128 rubles/kg (approximately $1.55–$1.61/kg). Even after removing 10% VAT, the price remains in the $1.39–$1.49/kg range, approaching recent highs.

Quota Adjustment and Market Uncertainty: The 2025 pollock quota for the West Bering Sea is 694,200 tons, a ~10% decrease from last year, but still higher than the 480,000-ton reduction plan proposed by Russian industry associations. This "moderate production cut" injects new uncertainties into the industrial chain against the backdrop of rising raw material prices.

Caution Among Chinese Processing Enterprises: Chinese processors are wary of high raw material prices. A senior executive from a leading export processing plant stated that if the price of H&G pollock exceeds $1,500/ton, the FOB quotation for secondary frozen fillets must be at least $3,300/ton to maintain a marginal profit. Considering the EU's 13.7% tariff on Russian-origin pollock, terminal import prices may historically surpass those of U.S.-produced primary frozen fillets.
Hesitation in European Purchasing: Due to the export suspension of Norvegia Group's products, the EU may face a supply gap of thousands of tons of PBO fillets in the future. Although the domestic small-scale transaction price of Russian PBO products remains at $3,100–$3,200/ton (excluding tax), more exporters are in a wait-and-see state.

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