Norwegian cod exports weakened significantly in March.

Norwegian cod exports weakened significantly in March. According to the latest report from the Norwegian Seafood Council, due to tightened quotas and a decline in raw material supply, the export volume of Norwegian cod has dropped sharply compared to the same period last year, while fresh product prices have been pushed to historic highs. For processing companies, the tight supply of raw materials combined with rising costs is squeezing profit margins, making the operating pressure for this year’s cod season noticeably greater.

Looking at the first quarter, the landing volume of Norwegian cod has already decreased by more than half compared to the same period in 2022, reaching the lowest level for this time of year in this century. The contraction in supply has directly driven up market prices. In March, the average price of fresh-frozen wild whole Norwegian cod reached 105 Norwegian kroner per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 31%. Under the tight raw material conditions, domestic land-based processing plants in Norway not only have to compete with overseas fresh markets for supply but also contend for raw materials for producing salted, dried, and wind-dried cod, intensifying procurement competition.

Price increases have not translated into export growth; instead, shipments have been under pressure. In March, Norway exported 4,000 tons of fresh cod, with an export value of 404 million Norwegian kroner. Compared to the same period last year, the export value fell by 11%, and export volume declined by 31%. Denmark, the Netherlands, and Spain were the main markets for fresh cod that month. The landing volume of fresh cod in March fell by 19% year-on-year, directly dragging down the export volume of fresh wild cod by 27%, to 2,896 tons. Seafood analyst Eivind Hestvik Braekkan from the Norwegian Seafood Council noted that this was the lowest March export volume for fresh wild cod since 2009.

Farmed cod has also failed to fill the gap. In March, Norway’s fresh farmed cod export volume dropped to 1,127 tons, down 41% year-on-year. Both wild and farmed segments declined simultaneously, indicating that the market’s available supply is shrinking. For the processing chain reliant on cod raw materials, the rapid rise in raw material prices is no longer just a procurement challenge but is beginning to affect the ability to pass costs downstream in products.

Christian Chramer, CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council, mentioned that one of the biggest current pressures is whether processed products can continue to pass on rising raw material costs to downstream markets. The surge in cod raw material prices has impacted exports of various cod products and posed a more severe survival challenge for many land-based processing companies. For producers of salted, dried, and wind-dried cod, every price increase at the raw material level quickly transmits to processing costs and order rhythms.

In trade, the current Norwegian cod market shows a typical characteristic: shrinking volume and rising prices. High prices support unit value but cannot offset losses caused by a sharp drop in export quantities. For importers and distributors, future concerns are less about how much prices can rise and more about the acceptance of high-priced cod in the end market and whether processed product orders can sustain the persistently high raw material costs.

Norwegian Minister of Fisheries and Ocean Affairs Marianne Sivertsen Naess stated in an email that the March data once again highlights the importance of the seafood industry to Norway’s coastal economy and value creation. In a complex geopolitical situation and rapidly changing market conditions, the industry’s ability to maintain high export values and sustain growth in key Asian markets demonstrates the strong resilience and adaptability of Norway’s seafood supply chain. For the cod industry, whether this adaptability can translate into orders and profits has become the most practical issue of this year’s production season.