Norway's mackerel exports drop to a 13-year low, while herring prices surge again

Norway’s mackerel exports remain sluggish, yet prices have failed to see any meaningful pullback. Week 23 data from the Norwegian Seafood Council shows weekly exports of whole frozen mackerel stood at 1,117 tonnes, roughly flat year-on-year. However, against a backdrop of drastically reduced available quotas for Norwegian mackerel this year, circulating supplies in the market stay tight. The FOB border price for whole frozen mackerel under 600 grams fell 12.4% week-on-week to NOK 45.00 per kilogram, still approximately NOK 13 higher than the same period last year.

Exchange rate fluctuations are reshaping price perceptions. On 12 June, the Norwegian krone slid to its lowest level since April, with one krone equivalent to roughly USD 0.1049. While krone-denominated mackerel prices corrected in Week 23, dollar-quoted rates saw little softening. Since Week 18, Norwegian mackerel prices in dollar terms have held above USD 5.20 per kilogram. Though retreating close to the year-to-date low in Week 23, prices remain firmly in an elevated range.

Norway faces constrained mackerel stocks this year. The 2026 Norwegian mackerel quota stands at around 85,500 tonnes, below levels recorded in previous years. As of 12 June, cumulative landings of Norwegian mackerel reached merely 1,851 tonnes, with most fishing fleets still prioritising other pelagic species. Prior market intelligence indicates Norway’s total mackerel quota was slashed from roughly 282,000 tonnes in 2022 to around 138,000 tonnes in 2026. With Norway’s own catch share shrunk, exporters have limited volumes to trade ahead of the peak season.

Price gaps across key destination markets widened notably in Week 23. Vietnam remains a vital processing hub, European markets command the highest prices, while China maintains modest purchasing volumes amid ongoing competition for smaller-sized mackerel.

Prices for mackerel over 600 grams also corrected lower. In Week 23, Norway exported 133 tonnes of mackerel sized above 600 grams at an average price of NOK 49.10 per kilogram, down 5.3% week-on-week. An anomalous market trend emerged in May: large-sized mackerel (over 600 grams) traded cheaper than smaller grades under 600 grams. This stemmed from increased landings and exports of large mackerel, coupled with scarcer small-sized stocks and fiercer competition for small-grade supplies among traditional processors and Asian distribution channels.

Norway’s May mackerel exports hit a 13-year trough. Figures from the Norwegian Seafood Council record May exports at 4,306 tonnes valued at NOK 231 million (approximately USD 24.8 million), representing a 25% year-on-year volume drop alongside a 12% rise in export value. The United States, Vietnam and South Korea ranked as the top three markets for the month. The US jumped to become the largest importer of whole frozen mackerel in May, driven by local preference for large-sized fish. Steady demand for big mackerel exists among Asian-American consumers in the US, while climbing prices of competing seafood have further boosted mackerel’s appeal.

Japan remains one of Norway’s primary end markets for mackerel, though trade supply chains have undergone a major shift. Past market reports show roughly 80,000 tonnes of Norwegian mackerel (whole fish equivalent) flowed into Japan in 2025, accounting for nearly 40% of Norway’s total mackerel exports. Vietnam has emerged as the largest intermediate processing base serving the Japanese market: Norwegian mackerel is first shipped to Vietnam for filleting, deboning and further processing before being re-exported to Japan’s retail and foodservice sectors. Rising Norwegian exports to Vietnam do not equate to surging domestic Vietnamese consumption, as the bulk of these volumes ultimately feed Japanese demand.

Herring price trends diverge sharply from those of mackerel. Norway’s 2026 herring fishing and export season got off to a robust start, with high landings fuelling brisk trading activity. In Week 23, exports of whole frozen Norwegian herring hit 1,867 tonnes — the highest volume since Week 13. Following the launch of the North Sea herring fishery, prices saw a seasonal uptick from late May through early June.

Data from Norway’s electronic fish auction platform shows that as of 15 June, fishermen had harvested 60,205 tonnes of the allocated North Sea herring quota for the 2026/27 fishing season. Out of the total Norwegian spring-spawning herring quota of 342,666 tonnes, 156,796 tonnes had been landed. Reported North Sea herring landings totalled 16,680 tonnes in Week 23, of which 10,241 tonnes were destined for human consumption at an average weight of 149 grams per fish.

Week 23 export prices for herring stood markedly higher year-on-year. In the corresponding week of 2025, Norway shipped 2,592 tonnes of whole frozen herring at an average price of NOK 19.23 per kilogram. For Week 23 2026, EU buyers took 1,285 tonnes at an average rate of NOK 25.35 per kilogram, while Japan imported 94 tonnes at NOK 16.14 per kilogram. EU herring prices climbed to their highest level since late 2024.

May herring exports also retreated. Norway exported 7,123 tonnes of herring in May worth NOK 161 million, marking a 15% year-on-year fall in volume and a 16% drop in export value. Poland, Lithuania and Germany constituted the top import markets. The Norwegian Seafood Council explained that the North Sea herring fishery only fully kicked off at the end of May, delivering minimal support to May export volumes. While krone-denominated prices for most herring products declined, some grades posted higher euro-quoted prices, highlighting exchange rates as a key cost driver for European purchasers.

Japanese market interest in herring has intensified. Short supplies and sky-high mackerel prices have prompted many traders, particularly those operating in Japan and other Asian distribution channels, to turn to herring as a more viable alternative pelagic fish resource. Prices for frozen whole North Sea herring jumped from NOK 19.55 per kilogram in the same period last year to NOK 26.15 per kilogram, reflecting upward price pressure driven by substitution demand and constrained supply structures.

Herring fillet prices saw muted movement. In Week 23, krone-denominated prices for Norwegian herring fillets edged up 0.7% week-on-week, with trading volumes reaching 548 tonnes, slightly lower than the prior week. During Week 23 of 2025, Norway exported 496 tonnes of herring fillets at an average price of NOK 24.32 per kilogram. In the matching week of 2026, EU importers purchased 512 tonnes at an average price of NOK 23.61 per kilogram. Fillet prices remain weak in krone terms, with only minor fluctuations in euro quotations.

Two distinct trends are unfolding across Norway’s pelagic fish market. Mackerel exports have slumped to multi-year lows amid tightened quotas and limited tradable supplies, yet prices stay elevated on steady processing demand from Asia. Herring, meanwhile, has seen periodic price surges as its fishing season progresses, transaction volumes expand, and substitution demand rises. For Chinese importers and processing enterprises, key focus areas for mackerel include the Vietnam-based processing supply chain feeding Japanese markets and pricing dynamics for small-sized grades. For herring, market participants should track purchasing rhythms from Europe and Japan, especially the spillover substitution demand generated by expensive mackerel.

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