Global Fishing Quotas Push Up Cod Prices: High Prices May Last Until 2026, Category Shifts to High-End

In the autumn and winter of 2025, global cod supply has tightened due to stricter fishing quotas in core producing areas like the Barents Sea and Iceland, driving prices to record highs. This high-price trend is expected to last until 2026, with cod shifting from a common aquatic product to a high-end ingredient.

Global Fishing Quotas Tightened, Hitting New Lows

• The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) recommends a 2026 quota of 269,440 metric tons for Northeast Arctic true cod, a 14% decrease from ICES’ 2025 recommendation and a 21% drop from 2025’s actual implemented quota.

• Iceland’s 2026 cod quota has fallen by 4%, reaching its lowest level since 2013.

• Quotas in the three major cod-producing countries—Norway, Russia, and Iceland—have tightened simultaneously, turning cod into a "scarce high-end product."

Prices Soar, Polarizing the Industry Chain

In early October 2025, the average price of Norwegian frozen true cod reached 92.10 Norwegian kroner per kg (approximately USD 9.2/kg), a 27% year-on-year increase. Fresh cod prices hit 65.63 Norwegian kroner per kg (around USD 6.6/kg), with a year-on-year jump of over 32%.Fishermen have seen record earnings per fishing trip, while onshore processing enterprises face dilemmas due to tight raw material supplies.

Trade and Consumption Patterns Shift

• Trade Side: Norway’s exports of fresh cod fillets dropped by 50% year-on-year, and frozen cod fillets by 25%. Salted dried cod (Clipfish), despite a 25% quota cut, only saw a 12% decline in export value, becoming the "anti-decline mainstay."

• Consumption Side: In September 2025, Portugal’s imports of salted dried cod (a traditional consumer with strong demand resilience) fell by just 3%, while Brazil’s (price-sensitive) imports plummeted by 45%, showing clear market differentiation.

High-Price Cycle Extends, Consumers Turn to Alternatives

• Expert prediction: Cod prices will remain at historic highs until quotas recover in 2027-2028, with little chance of cooling in 2026.

• UK retail data: In the 12 weeks ending August 9, cod retail sales fell by 6.5% year-on-year, while average retail prices rose by 7.7% to GBP 11.20/kg. Consumers are switching to more cost-effective alternative white fish like haddock and pollock.

• Category positioning: Cod is no longer an affordable supermarket staple but is becoming a symbol on high-end dining tables.