Cod Market Polarized in Week 38 of 2025: Norwegian Cod Prices Hit Record Highs, Russia Dragged Down by US Ban

In Week 38 of 2025 (September 15-21), the global cod market showed a clear polarization of "strong Norway, weak Russia": prices of Norwegian Atlantic cod and haddock hit record highs, while Russian counterparts came under pressure due to the US ban, with sluggish transactions.

1. Norwegian Dual Cod: Supply Shortage Drives Price Surge

• Atlantic Cod: The price of 1-2.5kg headless & gutted (H&G) raw material from the Barents Sea rose by 325 USD/ton month-on-month to 9,575 USD/ton, approaching the 10,000 USD/ton mark; supply will be scarce by the end of the year, failing to meet European and Asian demand, and expectations of "no price ceiling" are strong.

• Haddock: The price of 800g+ raw material surged to 6,450 USD/ton; as fishing in the Barents Sea is approaching its end (main fishing to be completed by late September), and some original Russian buyers have switched to purchasing Norwegian products, the supply-demand gap has further widened.

2. Russian Cod: "False Momentum" Fades Under Ban Shadow

• Cod: The quotation for 1-2kg H&G cod rose by 100 USD/ton month-on-month to 8,600 USD/ton, but this was a "tentative price increase" by sellers, with actual transaction prices even lower; buyers remained on the sidelines due to policy impacts, daring not to stock up.

• Haddock: The price of 500g-1kg haddock fell to 5,900 USD/ton; the core reason is the US ban – according to the new regulation issued by NOAA on August 29, imported seafood must comply with the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), and Russia has been included in the "non-compliant country list". Starting from January 2026, Russian haddock products processed in China will be banned from entering the US, losing a key export channel; moreover, European purchases have not increased, leading to a dilemma of "reduced supply but even weaker demand".

3. Future Outlook: Polarization May Persist

• Norway: Although the proposed 2026 haddock fishing quota in the Barents Sea is expected to increase by 18%, trawl production will be low in the short term (until February-March 2026), so prices of the two cod varieties are likely to remain high or rise slightly.

• Russia: The ban may be extended to cod, and Europe’s dependence on Russian cod is decreasing (switching to Norwegian and Icelandic products); Chinese processing enterprises need to adjust their models (finding alternative raw materials/exploring non-US markets) to avoid the risk of order loss.