ALASKA POLLOCK SERIES FORECASTING

Prices of block-frozen PBO pollock fillets and surimi have climbed back to elevated levels, yet market participants do not expect a repeat of the sharp price slump seen in 2023. On June 8, Rasmus Soerensen, Chief Commercial Officer at American Seafoods Group, the largest offshore pollock processor in the United States, stated that the drivers behind the current price rally differ from those in 2022 and 2023, with notable shifts in inventories, market demand and the flow of Russian supplies.

Pollock block-frozen fillets and surimi hit record highs in 2022 before tumbling rapidly in 2023. Back then, exorbitant finished product prices, coupled with robust Russian output and excessive inventory, led to a marked decline in market demand. Soerensen pointed out that the current market fundamentals have changed. Buyers were slow to place orders earlier, resulting in extremely low inventory levels, which makes supply chains more vulnerable to drastic price swings amid fluctuations.

The U.S. B-season pollock fishing season is set to kick off on June 10. Early market data shows that transaction prices for U.S. individually frozen PBO block fillets for the B-season have already surpassed the previous record of $5,000 per metric ton. These prices are largely aligned with those of Chinese re-frozen PBO block fillets and Russian individually frozen PBO block fillets on an ex-warehouse and duty-paid basis. Multiple U.S. processors are still awaiting official quotations and firm orders.

Retail prices in Europe are also undergoing adjustments. The benchmark retail price for fish sticks at German supermarket chain Aldi is projected to rise from the current €2.49 per pack to nearly €3. Some contracts will adopt raw materials from the U.S. A-season at relatively lower prices, with related products expected to hit the market starting in late August. Whether higher finished product prices will curb consumer demand has become a key concern for European processors and retailers.

Low inventory is the core factor propping up prices. Major European buyers of block-frozen whitefish fillets historically maintained inventories equivalent to 8 to 12 months of consumption, but current stockpiles have shrunk to just a few weeks’ worth. Whitefish suppliers have made headway in market expansion, tapping new demand and promoting new products, preventing inventory buildups along distribution channels like those seen during the previous high-price cycle.

Shifts in Russian supply flows have also reshaped the market landscape. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022, the EU has stopped issuing new fishing permits to Russian vessels. Russia has ramped up surimi production using newly built and retrofitted vessels, with most products now destined for China, Japan and South Korea. Russian producers that can no longer export PBO block fillets have shifted greater focus to domestic sales, with annual domestic sales volume reaching 55,000 to 60,000 metric tons — roughly three times the level recorded four to five years ago.

China has emerged as a major growth market for Russian pollock surimi and block fillet products. Soerensen noted that Russia has developed a vast new market for its seafood. China previously had almost no demand for pollock surimi, but it has now become a pivotal market reshaping Russia’s sales structure. He added that a demand change of around 10,000 metric tons in a single market is enough to trigger price volatility, and Russia has completed a far larger-scale market redirection.

Evolving demand patterns are also visible in the U.S. market. The U.S. Department of Agriculture made large-scale pollock purchases in 2025, while demand from the fast-food sector continued to rise. U.S. restaurant chain Captain D’s has confirmed it will replace some basa fish products with pollock. The recovery of McDonald’s operations across Europe has also boosted demand for deep-skinned pollock fillets in the region. Tight supply and high prices of cod have further diverted part of whitefish demand toward pollock.

Output of U.S. A-season deep-skinned pollock fillets rose 19% year-on-year to 19,078 metric tons, reflecting higher purchasing priority from domestic markets and fast-food chains. Meanwhile, total U.S. PBO production fell 18% to 41,807 metric tons due to poor fishing conditions, with approximately 10,000 metric tons of fishing quotas left unfulfilled.

The surimi market is also gaining momentum. U.S. A-season surimi quotations to Japan edged higher, while production dropped 11% year-on-year to 70,948 metric tons. Negotiations for Russia’s B-season surimi are underway. Producers are quoting around $3.70 per kilogram for Grade A surimi with a gel strength of 700+, up from $3.20–$3.30 per kilogram in the A-season. Driven by strong demand from China and South Korea, initial transactions reached $4.10–$4.20 per kilogram on a FOB Busan basis. Some new suppliers expect prices to climb above $4.30 per kilogram as available supply tightens further.

By the end of May, Russia’s pollock surimi output fell 26% year-on-year to 36,169 metric tons, a drop of roughly 89,000 metric tons from the record high set in 2025. Some raw pollock has been diverted to higher-margin fillets and head-and-gutted (H&G) products. Prices of Russian H&G pollock hit new highs in early June, further dampening producers’ willingness to make surimi for the B-season. While tropical surimi exports from Vietnam, India and other countries are on the rise, their quality and grades cannot fully replace high-gel-strength pollock surimi required for Japanese kamaboko and imitation crab sticks. In addition, oil price fluctuations in the Middle East have caused fuel shortages for fishing fleets in India and Southeast Asia, putting cost pressure on warm-water surimi producers across Asia.